Paul Pierce’s plummeting crunch-time averages left the Celtics lacking a go-to scorer
We need you to be a go-to guy again next season, Paul.
I reminded myself of Paul Pierce while playing basketball, and that was actually a bad thing. Let me explain.
I played summer league basketball this summer, and I wasn’t what I used to be. Once a college basketball player (and not a decade or two ago either, but only two years ago), my waist now shows ample evidence of my unconditional love for pizza and a few too many hours on the couch. On the court, it showed. Because I was playing against high schoolers and old men who I would have devoured in my prime, my mind still felt like I was the best player on the court. My body just couldn’t carry out my head’s commands.
I would start a move and KNOW I was going to get to the hoop for an easy layup. All of a sudden – BAM! – my path was cut off by a defender I would have roasted in my heyday. My mind was telling me I could still get to the hoop, but physically I just couldn’t do it. By the end of the summer, my body realized my mind was a filthy liar and I adjusted accordingly. Where I once would have fielded layup lines against some of my defenders, I instead settled for jumpers. I put together some good performances, but I had no choice but to adjust my game. I couldn’t force my imprint on the game anymore. Instead, the game forced its imprint on me.
And that’s where Paul Pierce is now.
No longer can he force his will on a game. He can’t get to the hoop whenever he wants to, at least not against the league’s best defenders. Not during crunch time, either. Just look at a comparison of the past two years. The Pierce we experienced last season, at least during crunch time, wasn’t even close to the one we saw the year before.
Back during the ’08-’09 season, Pierce was the ninth-best NBA scorer in crunch time, averaging 39.1 points per 48 minutes during the final five minutes of five-point (or less) games. The players ahead of him were a who’s-who of NBA stars: Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Dirk Nowitzki, and Nate Robinson (wait, Nate Robinson?). That year Pierce was assisted on only 26% of his crunch-time shots, and shot 45% from the field. He didn’t need help producing make-able shots; Pierce could do it all on his own.
Fast forward to this past year and Paul Pierce, Crunch-time Assassin was nowhere to be found. His crunch-time scoring average plummeted to 22.8 points, and the players ahead of him were no longer superheroes. Players that scored at a higher rate than Pierce during crunch-time included the likes of Jonny Flynn, Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster, Andrea Bargnani and Randy Foye. For The Truth, it’s embarrassing to trail that quintet in anything basketball-related. But for those players to beat Pierce in crunch-time points, where Pierce has made a name for himself as a money player? Something was clearly wrong. When the pressure was on and defenses were more focused than ever on keeping the Celtics from scoring, Pierce was unable to create his own shots with any success. He needed assists on 50% of his crunch-time shots (almost double the rate from the year before), and his crunch-time field goal percentage fell to 41%. Opponents could handle The Truth, and the Celtics lacked a go-to guy.
Aging, and the nagging injuries that come with it, have forced Pierce to adjust his game. He can still get anything he wants against the right matchup (read: Matt Barnes, Orlando series), but no longer possesses the ability to exploit every player in the league. Lacking the explosiveness of his youth, Pierce can’t dominate on a nightly basis. He can’t create shots whenever he pleases. That newfound inability to generate open shots on a whim especially limits his late-game and important-game heroics. The proof is in the stats.
We all remember the Game That Must Not Be Named, when the Celtics collapsed in the fourth quarter and couldn’t hold a lead. What some people may forget is that poor second halves and shoddy fourth-quarter execution plagued the C’s all season long. Pierce, normally the go-to guy down the stretch of games, was one of the biggest culprits. Without a consistent late-game dosage of Truth serum, the Celtics were a team that lacked design in finishing out games.
So many times this summer, I thought back to that 13-point lead the Celtics held on the final night of the 2010 NBA season. If the Celtics had ’08 Paul Pierce that night, or ’09 Paul Pierce, would things have ended differently? Who knows?
And who knows whether Pierce’s late-game heroics will return this season? His time as a crunch-time killer may already have passed. If so, the Celtics better groom Rajon Rondo as a go-to guy, and quickly. As they proved on the NBA’s biggest stage, when a big road lead starts to dwindle and a deciding game tightens up, a champion needs at least one player it can count on for an important bucket.
At the very least, that player shouldn’t remind anyone of the summer league me.
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Celtics Columns | Jay King | September 16, 2010
One important thing to not though is that those stats could very well be the product of teams sagging off KG because of his declining jumpshot due to the knee injury, or Ray’s nagging inability to hit the open three at times last season.
They know Paul is going to take the shot, but you always had to account for the other guys before. But last year they were hurt, or worn out. If the bench pans out this year, don’t expect to see that again.
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But KG didn’t even play for half of ’09, and Ray’s still a threat even when he goes 0 for 10. Those might have factored in, but Pierce showed some slippage last season.
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PP has been a model of consistency in his career. It was hard not to notice that he wasn’t the iron man, the man with the resolve and ability to take over the game when he was needed. I wouldn’t rule out that he could return to form next season. Even Kobe, who is one year younger, is not the same Kobe.
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I think PP forgot about elements of his game and settled way too many times instead of driving to the hoop. Going to the hoop, even having lost a step you can havve three things happen; two of which are good. You score, you get fouled, or you miss/get blocked. I think PP just decided to shoot the ball too many times when if he had even approached the paint he would have scored or been able to pass off. When the jumper isn’t falling you have to go to the hoop or you’re worthless and that showed too much last year by many of the players, but especially with PP. He became very, very predictable. Sometimes it takes thinking and adjusting to get the job done. Apparently, he and the coaches weren’t watching tapes of the games as this was very evident from my perspective. Go Cs…
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i noticed rondos unwillingness to give up the ball late in games . hes still got it his knee gave him heaps of trouble last year should be fresher this year
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@jeremy
I’m not sure I see Rondo’s unwillingness to give up the ball late in games, but there was a certain awkwardness to Boston’s offense down the stretch. I’m not ruling out a Pierce return to clutch play, but I’m also not positive it’ll happen.
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Good research.. Didn’t seem like it in many of the games I saw, but definitely evident against Cavs in playoffs, which lends credence to the can no longer do it against elite defenders. Rondo has to be the man and facilitate, either by scoring on his own or getting the oldies easier shots.
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The oldies can still score and with the amount of offensive weapons available, throughout the rotation, the Celtics are going to be hard to defend.
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