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A rational (I think) look at the Kendrick Perkins trade, a day later

The plan was always about size, not just to overthrow the Lakers but also to pound the Heat at their weakest position, to limit Dwight Howard as much as possible, and to physically dominate lesser frontcourts. Rajon Rondo is great, of course, and Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, obviously, can still play. But the 2010-’11 Celtics were constructed to overwhelm teams with length, tenacity and toughness.

The Celtics added brawn and bulk this past offseason, signing the O’Neal brothers — we suspected, at least — because they knew, without a deep stable of big men, one injury to Kendrick Perkins could mean the difference between winning and losing a championship. Instead of sticking to that plan, the Celtics move forward with a center rotation consisting of A) a 6’9, round mound of no rebound who takes charges quite well but, again, is 6’9, B) two way-past-their-prime O’Neals, who aren’t healthy now and may never be, and C) a chair-throwing Nenad who can’t rebound and whose bald spot makes him look far older than his 27 years. So I ask you: what happened to the plan, to the blueprint that was supposed to bring Boston a championship?

Before I move forward, let me admit that I loved Kendrick Perkins as a player, as a person, and as a reporter on the few occasions I got to interview Perkins. But I’m not allowing that to cloud my judgment of this trade. The thoughts in this column are unbiased, and the thing I care most about moving forward — though I will miss Perk, as a fan — is how this trade affects the Boston Celtics’ chances to win a championship.

There is a chance this trade works out perfectly. If the O’Neals both (miraculously) return to good health, the Celtics will remain deep, strong, big, and tough. They will still have a frontcourt rotation that rivals ( and, mostly, puts to shame) any other team’s. Even if only one of the O’Neals returns, a Glen Davis-Jermaine/Shaq-Nenad Krstic center rotation can hold its own. And the C’s will have added Jeff Green to the bench, a bench that clearly needed some help and has been inconsistent (to say it nicely) this entire season.

There’s a line of reasoning, and it holds some clout, which says the Celtics were fine without Perkins over the first half of the season. That’s true. Their defense survived (thrived, even), and Shaq fit right in with the C’s starters. When Perkins returned, the Celtics were already 33-10 and ahead of the entire Eastern Conference. The Celtics can win without Perkins, there’s no question. But during most of that time, the O’Neals were (relatively) healthy.

Doesn’t this new plan rely far too heavily on two O’Neals, who have COMBINED to play in only 53 games this season? Two O’Neals whose bodies have proven incredibly unreliable? Two O’Neals who can’t stay on the court and can’t reasonably be expected to provide nightly support? Two O’Neals whose careers — not just seasons — have been marred by injury after injury?

What happens if both O’Neals miss a playoff game? Are you happy about the thought of Glen Davis, Troy Murphy and Nenad Krstic trotting out alongside KG to battle Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum? Or Dwight Howard? Or even trying to overwhelm the Heat’s thin frontcourt (which wouldn’t look nearly as thin against the Davis-Murphy-Krstic trio)? Do those thoughts intrigue you? I doubt it. The Celtics were built on size and toughness. Unless the O’Neals get healthy for the stretch run, the Celtics lost a large part of their identity by shipping Kendrick Perkins away. Kevin Garnett remains a Boston Celtics, and he’s their heart. But Boston’s imposing frontcourt will no longer impose, unless the O’Neals are healthy. An “unless” that — if you’ve been paying attention to the C’s injury list — doesn’t inspire hope.

That the Celtics’ championship hopes may now rest on the O’Neal brothers’ health isn’t even what bothers me most. No, I’m most bothered that the Celtics didn’t have to take such a big risk. If they sat steady at the trade deadline, without making a single move, the Celtics would have remained the favorites to win the NBA championship. They had a tried and true method of winning. If Garnett had stayed healthy in ’09, and Perk in ’10, the Celtics possibly could have been three-time defending champions right now. And they did all that winning with Perk as their center, with an unapologetic mean streak as their calling card.

When you thought of the Celtics’ championship hopes yesterday at 2:00 p.m., you knew what the Celtics were. A rugged crew. A team that rose to every challenge, even in defeat. A team that was almost always physically and mentally tougher than its opponent, and never, ever backed down. They were Kevin Garnett screaming his head off, and they were Kendrick Perkins standing by his side to provide the muscle and intimidation (not to mention the wondrous post defense). They were a well-oiled machine consisting of players who knew each other in and out, and had never lost a playoff series when healthy.

Now? The Celtics may be looking forward to 40 minutes of center Glen Davis (who, I remind you, is 6’9) in every playoff game, which may not prove destructive but certainly isn’t ideal. The Celtics may use Nenad Krstic, and his underwhelming 12.2 rebound rate, as Davis’ lone backup. If the O’Neals aren’t healthy — and is there any reasonable reason to believe they will be? — the Celtics won’t be big, bad and strong, like they had planned to be ever since losing Game 7 and seeing the Lakers celebrate an NBA title. They won’t push around opponents to the same extent, and they certainly won’t scowl as much. Whether the Celtics scowl doesn’t seem important, but Glen Davis and Nenad Krstic don’t intimidate people. Kendrick Perkins does. Shaq and Jermaine, if healthy (such a brutal if), might.

Yesterday at 2:00 p.m., the Boston Celtics were the favorites to win the 2011 NBA championship. When the season’s all said and done, they still might win a title. I’m not ruling that out, not by any means. Jeff Green, for all the intelligent people (rightfully) saying he’s overrated, is still a versatile, athletic player who will improve Boston’s bench and give Doc Rivers more options. Nenad Krstic, for all my complaints about his soft nature, possesses a few worthy skills and isn’t a terrible option off the bench. The O’Neals might return to full health, and Perkins might prove to be just what Danny Ainge banked that he would be: expendable.

But why risk it? Why wake up on February 24, the day of the trade deadline, and decide, “Ya know what? Let’s change everything today — our philosophy, our starting lineup, our chemisty. Let’s just change it all. Even though we’re NBA favorites if we just stand pat, and even better than that if we keep our core intact while trading for a Shane Battier type (or even an Anthony Parker type), let’s ship Kendrick Perkins away. Let’s roll the dice.”? Why?

On the periphery, you can argue the trade makes sense. Perkins, for everything he brought the Celtics, had flaws, and — if the O’Neals are still alive by the time the postseason rolls around — Perk’s presence would have made for a very full frontcourt. They had a gaping hole at backup small forward, and Green fills that. The Celtics may also consider Green a better piece for the future than Perk, though that reasoning could be argued and this shouldn’t be about the future. But there’s a reason the Celtics imported so much size: They learned first hand how a single injury can impact an NBA championship. They learned first hand how much they needed Kendrick Perkins. So they implemented a plan focused primarily on adding size, and more size.

Yesterday, the Celtics ditched that plan and decided to go a different route. It wasn’t because they didn’t think they could sign Kendrick Perkins; he told me he couldn’t see himself anyplace but Boston, and a report said he would have accepted a $30 million contract from Boston (which, for a player of Perk’s caliber and size, amounts to chump change). Even if the Celtics did fear losing Perk for nothing, trying to win a title with him now STILL made sense. It wasn’t because they worried about his health, because they offered him a contract extension a few weeks ago. It wasn’t because the current plan had proven itself the wrong plan, because the Celtics, with Perk, were the NBA’s favorites. It was because Danny Ainge felt adding Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic, while subtracting Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson, would improve the Boston Celtics.

You know what they say: If it ain’t broke, trade your 6’11, tough-as-nails player away, while risking your teams’ very identity in the process, and potentially hinging your team’s title aspirations on the health of two immensely fragile old men. The Celtics didn’t have to take this risk. That’s what I don’t understand, no matter how hard I try.

Related posts:

  1. Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson traded for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, 2012 first-round pick
  2. Kendrick Perkins strains MCL
  3. Kendrick Perkins: “I tell my wife that I just can’t picture myself anywhere but Boston”
  4. Kendrick Perkins: Torn MCL, PCL means he’ll miss Game 7
  5. Kendrick Perkins to be recruited by New Zealand team

categories Celtics Blog | Jay King | February 25, 2011

categories Boston Celtics, Kendrick Perkins

18 Responses to “A rational (I think) look at the Kendrick Perkins trade, a day later”

  1. James says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:14 pm

    I love your passion Jay but you will survive and the Celtics will thrive. Consider this; last year they got to Game 7 without KP, Shaq, JO, NK and no Green off the bench. Now what do you think? Again, I have to believe DA knows more about the health of the O’Neals and with 2 months to go until the playoffs there’s plenty of time for healing. As you know, the Celtics are firm believers they can ‘flip the switch’ when needed and ALWAYS show up in the playoffs. And what if KP goes down? Our bench is far better and when Murphy shows up will be even deeper. In the playoffs its all about match-ups and situations and I believe the Celtics can now handle the Spurs or Dallas better because I don’t think the Lakers have it this year. KP was a great Celtic and God Bless him but it takes talent to get talent and our core is still intact. I gotta stop blogging this is killing my work effort on my start-up! I am just so excited that NR is gone, our bench is better and that DA knows stuff we don’t. Go Cs…

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  2. jtshoopsblog says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:18 pm

    That trade shocked the hell out of me. You trade your best defensive center for basically a rental in Jeff Green and a player whose game had receeded as much as his hairline. Lucky Danny Ainge pulled that trade while Doc was on the road. If Doc was in Boston he would be on trial for murder killing Ainge with his bare hands..

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  3. Jay King says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:24 pm

    Ehh, James. They GOT to game seven with Perk. They lost it without him.

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  4. paul says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:25 pm

    This may be the best piece I’ve seen so far on what happened yesterday. The whole thing can be boiled down to this: IF Shaq comes back and is motivated and healthy and stays that way through June, then this could look like a truly inspired Aingian move. But how big an ‘if’ is that? Does anyone think there is even a 50/50 chance of that happening? Some folks will say ‘trust the Ainge’, that he knows the medical updates and so on, but you know, I don’t recall Ainge telling us when he signed the O’Neils last summer that they would be out much or most of the time. Still, at least he knew then to treat them as backup plans. Now he’s treating Shaq pretty much as THE plan. Even though no one wants to admit it, that’s pretty much what he’s doing. This trade is all about Shaq. We are putting all of our eggs in the basket of Shaq’s health and motivation, and that’s loco. I love Shaq and I love what he’s done for us this year. There’s no doubt that when he’s healthy and motivated, he makes us almost unbeatable. But RELYING on that is like relying on Nate’s shot selection.

    The point everyone seems to be missing is that it took Shaq, Jermaine and Semih, all of them, to replace Perkins. That wasn’t a demonstration of how expendable he was. It was a demonstration of how important he was.

    Most of the justifications I’ve been seeing for what Ainge did yesterday seem strained, so obviously strained. As you say, at 2pm yesterday, we had a team that had struggled through adversity after adversity, but remained the envy of the league despite it all. Now what do we have? This season was always a high wire act. We knew our weaknesses. We had problems of health at center, which was part of the reason we stacked that position; we had the Big Three aging fast ,though this was partially masked by their intense motivation and strongly team-oriented approach; and we had Rondo and Big Baby not quite ready to take on the main load. Our success this season was a delicate balancing act. So what happens next? Do we regain our footing and dance forward on the wire? or do we start to fall? It all comes down to Shaq, really, and there we go again…

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  5. anony says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:29 pm

    these were my thoughts almost to the word.
    i still can’t understand it. we had a sure thing. we had size, chemistry, perkins. i hardly even wanted semih to leave, now everything has been blown up.
    i could have understood this last year. but this year, with this team, with us a top, i just can’t comprehend either. i was screaming this yesterday, and i still don’t understand. We’ve closed our door a little more (at the least), and opened our door for the rest of the top of the eastern conference. it makes no sense. i thought it was all about banner 18, all about NOW.

    and i think hollinger is saying, we basically are betting against orlando and L.A. as much as i hate L.A. i have little doubt they wont make it to the finals. and before yesterday, i felt we could with kg and perk hold up against if not cancel out gasol and bynum like we did on jan. 30.

    our identity is gone

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  6. Danielle says:
    February 25, 2011 at 1:55 pm

    all about 18 my ass danny ainge. you just broke up one of the best teams you’ve ever had. if we don’t win it this year, ainge should get canned. because it all comes back to that starting five. perkins is irreplaceable and I feel bad that he just put in all that work to come back and then have Danny give him away, I’m embarrassed because Danny Ainge just treated Perk like absolute shit. and I’m sorry Kendrick, you didn’t deserve this.

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  7. James says:
    February 25, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    Jay…you better check the box scores for last year’s Finals as KP’s production was weak – In Game 6 KP played 7 mins had 1 reb and did not score (1 shot). Yes he defends well and is a big body but we have 3 guys and maybe a 4th coming to fill that role. And our bench got significantly better. And KG is healthier so our defense is even better this time around.

    GM 1 24 mins/3 rebs/8pts Loss
    GM 2 32mins/6rebs/12pts Win
    GM 3 22 mins/11rebs/5pts Loss
    GM 4 25 mins/7rebs/6pts Win
    GM 5 32mins/7rebs/4pts Win
    GM 6 7mins/1reb/0pts

    Averaged 23.7mins – 5.8 rebs – 5.8 rebs

    Those are not stellar stats by any stretch. They are average at best for a center and therefore he is certainly not the god-almighty-great center that everyone is saying. The love fest for KP is over and we all wish him well. This new group hasn’t even played 1 game, much-less 10-15, and everyones got a knife to their throats. Why???

    Go Cs….

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  8. len says:
    February 25, 2011 at 2:25 pm

    There was no guarantee or even likelihood that KP would stay healthy this season–so I don’t get what the big deal is. If we kept him we still might not have the old version of KP or any version come playoff time. The problem with these lunch-pail style of players they wear out and are injury prone. As a starter, KP was their worst offensive liability so although he will be missed defensively seeing him go provides minutes for someone who can score and play defense. If Danny didn’t feel the O’Neals were coming along he might not have pulled the trigger.

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  9. danielle says:
    February 25, 2011 at 2:29 pm

    @ james, you are really picking perk apart on his game 6 performance, it was 7 minutes into the game and he tore his acl. How can you base what he was worth to the Cs this season by that game? You can’t . So don’t. We’ll judge the new Cs when they play, your right. But we have every right to wonder why all of a sudden on the last day of trade season he decides to dismantle and interrupt our already phenomenal team.

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  10. James says:
    February 25, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    danielle…

    I picked apart the other games as I showed his averages for the Finals. Yes he got hurt inGame 6 but my reply was to Jay’s comment “They GOT to game seven with Perk”…well no they did not as he was injured and did nothing in Game 6. That said, why not give more credit to DA? Why do you assume this was a last minute deal? What’s allows you to know that? This could have been in the works for weeks or maybe even days. The bottom line is that as much as I appreciated KP and his heart, effort and help in getting us a title it’s time to move on and we just got BETTER!!! Go Cs…

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  11. Jay King says:
    February 25, 2011 at 5:33 pm

    And Game Six was when they lost by 95 points, James. Are you sure they got better? Because if Glen Davis is the C’s starting center come playoff time and Nenad Krstic/Troy Murphy the only backups, the Celtics won’t win a championship. The season really depends on the O’Neals’ health. Which sucks.

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  12. James says:
    February 25, 2011 at 7:21 pm

    Yes they got better. The bench is much better and now can provide more offense and rebounding which was the really weak point of this Celtics team. How many times this season have you written about the Cs having a lead and then the bench giving it back? A dozen? At least from my memory. And what if KP goes down again? He’s already tweaked the other knee and carrying 280 lbs on it isn’t helping. At least we got a very good, young, athletic SF to spell PP and RA. That alone should have you salivating. And even if the O’Neals aren’t back to full speed or are even not back the center position is only 1 spot. They still have to deal with the other 4 players and now they are stronger to do so…again the ability to spell PP and RA. If PP and RA get more rest then their shots are crisper and they aren’t likely to be dragging in the 4th period. The season depends on the TEAM coming together and assimulating the new guys and whoever is healthy come the playoffs and then going out and doing their job. KG is 100% back. PP, RA get more rest. The bench has more balance and better players. And only 8-9 guys play in the playoffs usually and so we have back-ups to our back-ups now. As long as the core 4 do not get injured I LOVE our chances. The Lakers are going to have trouble with Dallas and especially the Spurs. We can now compete better with Chicago, Orlando doesn’t bother me at all and we’re deep and better able to play the Heat. KP wasn’t going to guard LBJ or Wade and now we can do so not just with PP or RA but also JG/VW and I’d even use Bradley on Wade. Gotta love this new team. It’ll be Celtics and Spurs and we match up great with them now. Go Cs…and have a great weekend. Go get drunk you’ll feel better after the next two games. There are new ‘girls’ in town to fall in love with!

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  13. Chris H says:
    February 25, 2011 at 9:03 pm

    James:

    the bench got better in one way (with Green) but worse in another (since Big Baby now has to start at Center, which he is not). Baby also sucks as a starter; he forces shots. Off the bench he’s great.

    So while everyone is talking about the ONeals, maybe this season is going to come down to Chris Johnson, our new D-Leaguer. If he can start, and hold his own, then yes, the bench gets better, if we can have Green/Davis/Wafer/West.

    Why won’t anyone respond to my comment about Shaq’s foul trouble? Healthy or not, he cannot stay in a game for more than 20-30 mins.

    I never thought the C’s chances would be coming down to Chris Johnson. Two days ago, I’d never heard of him. And I’m only half joking here.

    WILL THE REAL CELTICS CENTER PLEASE STAND UP?

    CAN WE GET BILL RUSSELL OUT OF RETIREMENT? He might have better legs than Jermaine.

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  14. James says:
    February 25, 2011 at 9:42 pm

    Chris…you’re forgetting Nenad Krstic who would start ahead of Davis at center. We also have no idea about the health of the O’Neals but DA does (ergo the trade). And if we get Murphy and Leon (if healthy) there’s still a spot for DeShawn Sims? He with Maine and id 6’8″ and averaging 18/8 in 33 mins per game (I think the Cs should take a good look at him) and then of course the rabbit in the hat is….Sheed. Yep, I said it. Until he doesn’t show up and the playoffs are starting he is still an option. Plays center pretty good too. And you throw Johnson in possibly if he can stick (on a 10 day pass). So let’s see what happens tomorrow and in the three games through next Friday before worrying anymore. Of course, I’m not worried at all. I’m excited again. Go Cs….

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  15. Frank Aziza says:
    February 25, 2011 at 11:04 pm

    Jay, think about what you’re saying… if the ONeils come back reasonably healthy then the trade can work… if they don’t come back, especially Shaq.. then we won’t win the title… but don’t u think, even with perk, and none of the Oneils we can’t win any way? With out Shaq, and just having perk would make us last year’s team only older and sheed (don’t say a word, he was huge in the playoffs). Your whole post on us winning the title admits we need the Oneils either way, or at least one of them with perk. If we get Shaq and Krscyck along with Green and a slight chance of Jermaine, we will be good to make a run..? Don’t forget, we have D West now too… we didn’t have him all year, the bottom line, if our bigs get healthy we can possibly be better… the only fear i have is how the new guys click and rise on the big stage… some guys can choke comi. G

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  16. Frank Aziza says:
    February 25, 2011 at 11:05 pm

    Can choke coming to a contender

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  17. Chris H says:
    February 25, 2011 at 11:09 pm

    James;

    Krstic — you’re right, if he’s going to start, but that proves the point that the C’s are giving up the backbone of their post defense — while putting way too much on KG now to hold the fort down.

    And while I appreciate your optimism over D-league recruits, is this how a championship team find players midway through a season?

    Johnson may work out, though his game against the Nuggets isn’t exactly like a game against Howard/Orlando.

    Can Krystic play D at all? In all honesty, I haven’t seen enough of him to know. How did the Lakers play in the post against OKC last year in the playoffs? I don’t remember. Hopefully he can learn to play team defense.

    Are you sure he’s going to start? Are the new players on the court against the Clippers tomorrow? It will be interesting to see.

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  18. James says:
    February 26, 2011 at 1:36 pm

    Chris…I think it is still center by ‘committee’ as it has been all season. If SO/JO are healthy then we’re even better but we’ll be fine even if they are not. It’s team defense and we still have enough bigs and a new SF to defend but that can also score – so our bench is much better. The D-league guy I want on the Celtics is Sims. He would not play because the playoffs are a 8-9, 10 max player rotation but the experience would be good for his learning curve. We’ll see about Johnson as he’s on a 10-day and he can get another 10-day before having to make a decision. If we get Murphy and Powe (assuming he’s healthy) then we’re even better and both are good rebounders. Murphy’s a good 3 shooter and Powe can play excellent defense. I don’t know who’s playing tonight but I hope the new guys are available. I can’t wait as I believe we are much better all around now. Go Cs….

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