Almost three years ago, Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal went to dinner. Where they went was unimportant. What they ate doesn’t matter. Pierce had a glow about him, a natural happiness that Jermaine could spot instantly, just the same way he could spot the flashy, new ring on Pierce’s finger. If Jermaine had wanted an NBA championship before, he suddenly became Gollum from Lord of the Rings, cursed to chase a ring for the rest of his career. (Boston Globe)

“He was at a different level,’’ O’Neal said. “It was like a natural high. Like a newborn baby or winning the state lotto. Whatever it is that gives you that feeling of happiness, he was there. As a player, you’re not envious of what he’s done. But you want to have that feeling.’’

The ring became Jermaine’s primary goal, one of two things missing from his storied career. The other, an MVP trophy, was unrealistic, so Jermaine focused his efforts on attaining that ring. If a championship could bring a man so much happiness, if it could make him as happy as Pierce had been that night at dinner, Jermaine wanted one. Maybe he even needed one. The ring became his precious.

For two seasons after that dinner, winning a ring seemed almost as unrealistic as that MVP trophy. While championship contenders duked it out in the playoffs, Jermaine’s hopes in Toronto and then Miami remained slim. He had seen first-hand how a ring could change a man, how it could lift a man to another level of happiness like having a newborn baby or winning the lotto, but Jermaine’s teams were not good enough to challenge for one.

Likely, he spent a lot of time reflecting on the Palace Brawl. If only nobody had thrown a beer at Ron Artest. If only Artest had restrained himself from running into the stands. If only a fight had not ensued. If only suspensions not been so drastic. If only… , maybe Jermaine’s Indiana Pacers would have earned him that ring. They were talented and hungry, focused and skilled, deep and well-rounded. But it was not to be. Instead, Jermaine found himself in Toronto and then Miami, ringless as a girl whose boyfriend wouldn’t propose, with hopes that dwindled as he grew older and creakier, even if his face never seemed to age a day.

And then Jermaine was freed. Free agency arrived, and Jermaine knew he would base his decision on that elusive ring. Money wasn’t an issue, because he’d made more than enough of that. Playing a large role wasn’t an issue, because he’d been there, done that. Only a title mattered. Only the quest for his precious.

There were probably just two real options: stay in Miami, where the Heat had assembled an All-Star lineup but still needed a starting center, or move to Boston, where a starting position wasn’t promised but the Celtics had proven championship know-how. For O’Neal, the choice came down to where he thought he could win a title.

He thought back to his dinner with Paul Pierce, back in the summer of ’08. He remembered discussing how important it is to be labeled a champion, how winning one title can erase so many negatives from a career. He remembered Pierce telling him what it felt like to reign over the entire NBA. He thought about Boston’s veterans, about how they had no agenda but another title, about how they performed without any egos, about how individual glory truly meant nothing to them. He thought about Miami, where younger superstars would naturally still want to leave their individual stamps on the game’s history, where he wasn’t sure whether such stars, still in their primes, could sacrifice enough for the team. He knew time was his enemy, that the search for his precious had an expiration date.

He chose Boston.

Nine months later, Jermaine’s decision will now be tested. A best-of-seven series will tell him whether he made the right choice. And the following keys will play a huge part:

Rondo

The Miami Heat have no natural answer for Rajon Rondo. Surely, they will concoct some scheme in an attempt to limit Rondo’s effectiveness and keep him from dominating the series. That will probably involve trying to make him a scorer, sagging off him to force some jump shots, and limiting Boston’s transition opportunities by taking care of the ball and getting back on defense. But Playoff Rondo doesn’t get easily bothered by such tactics. Against the Heat, Rondo has become Boston’s biggest advantage. Whether he gets off will go a long way toward dictating this series.

The Joel Anthony Effect

In round one, the Joel Anthony Effect was in full force. Despite possessing all the skills of a fire hydrant, Anthony’s on-court/off-court numbers in round one were outstanding. Actually, make that outrageous: the Heat were 51.36 points per 100 possessions better with Anthony on the floor. Granted, that number probably isn’t sustainable. But Anthony has been doing everything Erik Spoelstra has asked of him, providing Miami with an interior presence similar to the one Jermaine O’Neal provided for Boston in round one. (And yes, if you told me two months ago I would be comparing Joel Anthony and Jermaine O’Neal, I would have bet my life I’d be comparing their suckitude. But things changed. Quite drastically.)

At the beginning of the season, interior play was Boston’s biggest advantage against Miami. With Shaq, Jermaine and Kendrick Perkins, the Celtics had three players who could dominate Miami’s weak front line. Now, I’m just hoping A) silly glue continues to hold Jermaine’s body together, B) Jermaine can outplay Joel Anthony, and C) Glen Davis finally resembles the player who used to help Boston win games. Boston’s interior advantage is almost entirely gone, unless (and I’m not holding my breath) Shaq comes back healthy and functional. Even then, he couldn’t be relied on to play more than 10-15 minutes, so his effect would probably be somewhere between “negligible” and “not much”.

Games One and Two

If the Celtics do hold a mental edge against the Heat—and considering no member of the Heat has ever beaten the Big Three Celtics in a playoff series, and considering the Heat have called Boston their big brother and their bully multiple times this season, it’s difficult to imagine the Celtics don’t have at least a small edge—it will be on the line in the first two games. If the Heat win those two and start to believe in themselves, the mental edge goes “vamoose.” But if Boston walks into the American Airlines Arena and takes one of the first two—BAM!—the doubts become larger. Maybe the Heat start to listen to the voice in the back of their head telling them, “Boston’s got your number.” Maybe the media starts to crucify Lebron already. Maybe Miami’s role players start to lose confidence. Maybe Boston’s mental edge becomes even more significant.

Another reason to win one of the first two in Miami? Starting a series 0-2 is never terrific.

Bench play

On paper, Boston’s bench looks significantly better than Miami’s. On paper. In reality, one of my friends started calling Boston’s bench “The Toilet Boys” because they’ve been pissing away games all season. The talent’s there, and that’s important. But there has been a critical disconnect between potential and performance, and Glen Davis, Jeff Green and Delonte West have all performed less than admirably, especially recently.

Though Doc Rivers cautions that benches become less important in the playoffs (and that’s true, because they don’t play as many minutes), second units can still swing games one way or the other. Remember when Stephon Marbury won a game against Orlando in 2009? Or when Shrek and Donkey won Game 4 against the Lakers last year? If Boston’s bench helps win one game and doesn’t piss any away, that could be the difference in the series. But if The Toilet Boys continue to urinate at inopportune times? Miami won’t be as forgiving as New York was.

Turnovers and Rebounds

If you’re a Celtics fan, the chorus is familiar. Take care of the ball, box out, crash the glass, yada yada yada. But the Celtics have struggled in these two areas since the Big Three era began.

Against Miami, turnovers take on an even greater significance. Though the Heat play at a slow pace they are the NBA’s top team in transition, able to convert turnovers into showtime at the other end. If the Celtics can take care of the ball and turn the Heat into a half-court team, they’ll be able to load up on Wade and Lebron and force tough shots. But in transition, those guys are like trucks with no breaks—you can’t stop them. The same principle goes for Miami, who will strive to limit Boston’s transition opportunities and keep Rondo from finding easy buckets early in the shot clock.

Walter Ray

Just like the Heat don’t have an answer for Rondo, they’ll struggle to stop Ray. Dwyane Wade normally gets the assignment, but there are two issues with that: 1) he tends to help off shooters too much, and 2) guarding Ray actually hinders Wade’s offensive aggressiveness. The other options don’t sound much more enticing. Mario Chalmers is probably the next-best fit to defend Ray.

Bottom line: the Celtics are a better team when Ray hits his shots. And he was 16-28 from deep against the Heat during this regular season.

Individual Brilliance vs. Team

When people contrast Boston’s teamwork against Miami’s individual brilliance, it’s not just a convenient narrative. Boston’s offense often relies on all five players moving in unison and making swift and proper decisions, while Miami’s offense relies more on Wade or Lebron running a pick-and-roll or isolation and other players spotting up in the corner. It’s not that I’m damning Miami’s strategy: the Heat are the league’s most productive team during isolations and pick-and-rolls. Their strategy works. It’s just different. And it helps negate the offensive liability of guys like Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers.

If an NBA playoff series is about a team’s top two players, the Celtics are in trouble. The Heat have the best two players in the series. But the Celtics might have the next four best (Chris Bosh might disagree), and a more versatile and talented bench (even if The Toilet Boys haven’t inspired any confidence).

Coaching

If a game comes down to the final Boston possession, I’m supremely confident Doc Rivers will manufacture a good look. If a game comes down to the final Heat possession, I’m supremely confident Erik Spoelstra will call an iso or pick-and-roll. If coaching’s the difference, Celtics fans have to be excited.

Prediction: The Celtics have been there, together. The Heat haven’t. In a series this close, that matters.

Celtics in six.

Kevin Arnovitz with a phenomenal look at what makes the Celtics so difficult to defend when they’re on their game.

Ray Allen isn’t only shooting 57% from the three-point arc against Miami this season. His mere presence also helps to neutralize one of Miami’s greatest strengths: the attacking nature of Dwyane Wade.

During four regular season meetings between the two teams, Wade averaged 12.8 points on 28% shooting. While the low field goal percentage certainly isn’t by design, coach Erik Spoelstra has asked Wade to take on a different mentality against Boston’s designated dart thrower. (ESPN’s Heat Index)

Wade is attacking the basket significantly less against Boston. According to Hoopdata.com, Wade has averaged 7.2 field goal attempts at the rim per game this season and 8.6 free throws. Against Boston, however, Wade has averaged just 5.5 attempts at the rim and 5.8 free throws.

Judging by Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s words after Friday’s practice, they want Wade to be a different player. They want him to be a facilitator, rather than someone who attacks relentlessly.

“Dwyane showed a great maturity last game,” Spoelstra said. “[The Celtics] have been committed to keeping him out of the paint, taking the ball out of his hands and so last game we made an adjustment to not press but to play with more poise and often times, create something for somebody else. We were able to exploit some other things while he’s being aggressive but he’s not trying to force it and try to score 25. And that’s the balance we’ll have to find in this series.” …

“My role is totally different,” Wade said Friday. “I’m just trying to do the job that’s best for me to do. I think I got into that more last game even though I didn’t score a good amount. I was able to do other things on the floor. For me, it’s all about playing the game of basketball, playing good defense, rebounding the ball, and doing other things.”

The extent that guarding Allen takes away from Wade’s offensive game (while not slowing down Allen very much, if at all) could be another factor leading toward Wade defending Rondo in round two. As I noted yesterday, Wade did a better job on Rondo than any other Heat member this season. His athleticism allows him to play free safety off Rondo yet still contest Rondo’s drives to the hoop.

Then again, it’s not like Rondo’s a dandelion in transition, either. Maybe, then, we should expect a toned-down Wade in round two? Ehh, I doubt it. Perhaps it’s just me, but I can’t really see Wade (who was more or less on another planet against Boston last postseason, despite not having a single trustworthy teammate) deferring all series. If he does, the Heat lose one of their biggest strengths.

On another note, let’s give Ray Allen some serious credit here. It’s not often a player’s prolific shooting impacts how a superstar opponent approaches his own offense.

A great video to get you pumped for Celtics-Heat, via Celtics Town reader Fisken.

Also, there have been some terrific columns penned about Celtics-Heat recently. Just as players raise their play for the postseason, so do NBA writers. Without further ado, some of the best work around the blogosphere:

Zach Lowe, Sports Illustrated – “It’s easy to say lots of role players need to ‘step up.’ Jeff Green has to play much better than he has since the deal, and he’s going to have chances to defend LeBron James. Delonte West has to be helpful. One of these guys might swing a key run that can in turn swing a game. But among Boston bench players, it’s Davis that must be consistent, because it’s Davis alone among that crew that is going to play heavy minutes.”

Jackie MacMullan, ESPN – “‘I don’t want to make excuses, but my body wasn’t right,’ Rondo said. ‘It wasn’t responding the way it always had. My game is speed, energy, and now you get a tweak in your ankle and that slows you down. My hands started hurting. It was almost like arthritis. Any little hit and they would just throb and throb. Then I had the plantar fasciitis, and that wouldn’t go away, so you had all these nagging things that added up. I tried to play through it. Some days I did better than others.’ His coach, his general manager and his teammates tried to coax him back on track. They all told him the same thing: When you push the ball, you are better and the team is better. Kendrick Perkins, his best friend who was traded to Oklahoma City in February, urged him to rediscover his passion for the game. Rondo countered the game wasn’t fun for the first time in his life. ‘The main thing was we were losing,’ Rondo said. ‘And I felt the reason we were losing was because of me. I put a lot of pressure on myself. I wanted to finish the season well. That was the biggest concern for me, to find a way to get better, because we weren’t playing well, or moving the ball, and that was on me.’ ”

Tom King, MassLive – “Despite its success in the open court, the Heat don’t run all that much. In fact, they play at the 10th slowest pace, while the Celtics play at the league’s seventh slowest pace. Another key to the series will be how often the Heat are able to get out on the fast break. Boston is the fourth best transition defense, but it also turns the ball over on 14.49% of its offensive possessions, third-worst in the NBA. If the Celtics continue to turn the ball over at such a high rate (highest in the playoffs), the Heat will make them pay in transition.”

Paul Flannery, WEEI – “While the Heat didn’t come close to the 70-win domination some predicted, they are in the words of Celtics president Danny Ainge, ‘scary,’ as he told the Big Show on Thursday. ‘First you have to stop them in transition,’ Ainge said. ‘You have to prevent LeBron and [Dwyane] Wade from getting to the rim in the halfcourt and in transition and then you have to stop their 3-point shooting with [James] Jones and [Eddie] House and Bibby. And then you have to keep them off the glass. That combination is scary and is difficult to defend. The Celtics are – if not frightening – then impenetrable and foreboding. As long as the big three walk without a limp and Rondo runs the show, they are old man swagger personified, with a blast of turbo boost.”

Kelly Dwyer, Ball Don’t Lie – “It’s on Boston. The team that has to start this series in Florida because it started March like a lame-o and ended it in a jam. Yes, Boston flipped that switch last season around this time (a little earlier than this time, if we’re honest) and, yes, Miami can’t be trusted to even make it past half-court if the game is close in the final minutes, but what happens when Miami peels off a 30-12 third quarter? … I don’t think the Celtics have it, anymore. And you’re damned correct in assuming that I hope I’m terribly, terribly wrong about this — because I want this thing to go seven games, and I want a minimum of 14 overtime periods stretched out during that term. I hope Boston flips that switch.”

Brian Windhorst, ESPN – “LeBron James is about to play the most important playoff series of his career. Six surefire Hall of Famers will be playing in this upcoming Heat-Celtics series, but none of them has as much at stake as James does. His status is on the line, and right now there’s no basis for excuse. … Now, with the Celtics at hand again, all of James’ chips are in the middle. Win and he was right. Lose and he’s in the same mud, a year older and looking no wiser. Fair or not, that’s his situation. Either lead his team to being more clutch than Ray Allen, more rugged than Kevin Garnett, more crafty than Paul Pierce and more fearless than Rajon Rondo, or endure another burning summer of discontent. Only this time, the mockery will be more about basketball and not public relations.”

Matt Moore, CBS Sports – “The hardest part about guarding the Celtics is their consistency in running their offense. They’e not going to blow you away with new sets. But they run what they run to such precision that it’s near impossible to stop them. The biggest problem is chasing Ray Allen through screens. Allen will usally cut baseline to baseline through closing screens. The result is Allen getting open for 3-pointers while the defender is still trying to recover from brutal off-ball screens by Glen Davis and KG, and the announcers saying “How can you leave Ray Allen wide open?!” as if the thought of defending the greatest pure shooter (limited to non-ball-handlers who just shoot 3-pointers, please leave your MJ/Kobe debates at home, kids) never crossed their mind. Wade will be assigned to try and get through, but his body isn’t built for the wear and tear. Mario Chalmers might be a better cover here, as Bibby isn’t tall enough to defend in the first place and would get murdered on the screens. Chalmers needs to study tape of what J.J. Redick has done to get through those screens and he can’t afford to lose Allen, even on broken plays or rebounds. If you take your eyes off Allen for a second, that’s three points.”

A dark-featured man wakes up in a cold sweat. He bounces up into a seated position, breathing heavily, his hair parted down the middle like always, even in the middle of the night.

For him, this year has been the continuation of a dream, an ascent from video coordinator, to assistant coach, to head coach of Michael Beasley and Quentin Richardson, to head coach of two of the game’s most well-recognized stars (and Chris Bosh). Even in such a dream, nothing has gone perfectly. The team some expected to win 72 games won 58, struggling to find an identity, misfiring many times in the clutch, taking longer than predicted to learn how to co-exist, dealing with far more heat than just the Florida sun. Some people wondered whether Pat Riley would fire the young coach and take his job, while others wondered whether Doc Rivers would be interested in taking Miami’s coaching position after the season. Fusing so many stars together was a project for a more experienced man, many observers opined.

But none of that was why Erik Spoelstra (in my own imagination) jolted awake with sweat pouring down his face, like he had just spent two hours jogging in a sauna. In leading Miami to a late-season surge, Spoelstra had quieted most of his detractors, for now at least. Rather, he woke up because a question kept thundering through his head, laughing at him like an evil clown:

“What in the world do we do with Rajon Rondo?”

The options:

Pressure him

The road less traveled, pressuring Rajon Rondo takes an athletically gifted player. For example, John Wall (were he better at defense) could theoretically bother Rondo using his elite quickness and long arms. But Spoelstra’s not dealing with thoroughbreds at his point guard position; Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers and Eddie House aren’t going to win any 100-yard dashes anytime soon. Still, because Spoelstra could potentially sic Dwyane Wade or Lebron James on Rondo, we should at least discuss the merits of pressuring Rondo.

Pressuring Rondo gives him less time to dissect a defense. It gives him fewer passing lanes to utilize. It takes him out of his comfort zone, so that he’s not always the one dictating terms. But the Heat haven’t pressured Rondo at all this season. Whoever has defended Rondo—whether it be Chalmers, Bibby, House, Wade or the now-Celtic Carlos Arroyo, (or even Lebron, who has almost never guarded Rondo with Miami)—has given him cushion to try to A) force a jump shot, B) stay in front of him, and C) keep him away from the paint. The fear of seeing the back of Rondo’s jersey too often while he flits into the paint has kept Miami from pressuring him.

Afford space while defending with a point guard

Mostly, the Heat have guarded Rondo with their point guards. That could change in the playoffs, of course, where Dwyane Wade and/or Lebron James might be called on for longer spells of defending Rondo. But in the regular season, the job fell mostly on Miami’s PGs.

Because none of Miami’s point guards  have plus athleticism, sagging off Rondo is essential. Some guards could give Rondo trouble while pressuring him. Mike Bibby’s not one of them. The Heat have gone under almost every ball screen this season, trying to force Rondo into jumpers just like most teams do (I know this mostly because I re-watched every possession Rondo used against the Heat). Actually, most team’s strategies against Rondo are quite similar. Lay off him, use his defender as a free safety of sorts, and pray he shoots jumpers or makes bad decisions.

You can see here how the Heat successfully defend Rondo while not actually defending him. James Jones completely leaves Rondo to help out his teammates. Eventually, the Celtics find the wide open Rondo. But he’s too shy to shoot a simple jump shot, choosing to drive into the trees instead. Because the Heat have two defenders capable of blocking shots, Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh, that leaves Rondo with a tough shot. (Note: I consider James Jones the point guard in this unit because he’s playing alongside Wade and James without a true point guard.)

Even the best strategies to defend Rondo often fail, though. Part of that is his ability to thrive in transition, before defenses even get set.

As Rondo told Jackie MacMullan, “”In transition? Definitely, I don’t think anyone can stay in front of me.” Indeed, the Heat will need to limit Rondo’s transition opportunities. When he’s in the open court, his brilliance with the ball often results in layups for himself or good looks for his teammates. But he doesn’t merely excel on the fast break, although that’s where he makes his finest contributions. No, Rondo has become a complete player, one capable of handling all types of defenses.

He has become so difficult to defend in part because he’s smart enough to counter any defense played against him. To negate the impact of Miami leaving him open, Rondo can become more aggressive with his cuts to the basket. He has seen every defense played against him over the years, and many teams have tried a “sag and pray he shoots jump shots” tactic similar to the one Miami seems to have adopted. So Rondo has adjusted, and when he’s playing his best, can burn defenses who leave him to offer help elsewhere.

Here Rondo sees Mario Chalmers leave him alone, then Rondo sprints straight to the basket, positioning himself behind the defense for an easy two.

Afford space while defending with Wade/Lebron

Interestingly, although Lebron spent some time guarding Rondo last postseason, he spent very little time (read: almost no time) guarding Rondo this season. Likely, that’s due to Miami’s roster makeup. If Lebron defends Rondo, there’s nobody left to guard Paul Pierce.

So when Miami chose to play Rondo with more size, the task almost always went to Dwyane Wade. Contrary to what some observers believe, teams don’t play taller, more athletic defenders on Rondo to stop Rondo. Instead, they play taller, more athletic defenders on Rondo so they can offer more help on his teammates. Kobe Bryant, for example, does a tremendous job leaving Rondo to make life more difficult for Rondo’s teammates. Because of his athleticism and defensive instincts, Wade can play a role in thwarting Boston’s offense similar to the one Kobe plays for LA.

Here’s Wade, completely neglecting Rondo to help on Ray Allen in the corner. Rondo ends the play with a wide open 15-footer, but the Heat will live with that shot. Note how unconcerned Wade seems with defending Rondo.

As we said earlier, Rondo can counter passive defense with off-ball cuts to the hoop. But against Wade, that becomes more difficult. Here, Wade leaves Rondo to help on Ray Allen, again. Rondo reacts by cutting to the hoop but Wade, thanks to being an obscene combination of fast-twitch muscles, recovers to make Rondo’s resulting shot a very difficult one.

While Wade guarding Rondo seemed to cause Boston the most problems, that matchup doesn’t come without its share of negatives for Miami. When Wade guards Rondo, that likely means a smaller player has to defend Ray Allen. Ray doesn’t normally post up, but he can, as he showed while taking advantage of the smaller Toney Douglas at times during the first round.

In addition to the height disadvantage against Allen, many point guards are less experienced at covering shooters around screens. Very rarely do point guards come around screens for catch-and-shoot opportunities, so guarding Ray Allen is an entirely different beast. Combined, the point guard trio of Mike Bibby, Eddie House, and Mario Chalmers has guarded only twelve off-screen three-pointers this entire season. Ray might shoot that many in the first three games of a series, and the point guards might be unprepared to fight through screens and keep Ray from getting off clean shots.

Here’s an example of why cross-guarding Rondo with Wade could free Ray Allen for some good looks. Watch Eddie House painfully attempt to navigate around screens. He never had a chance.

Pick one way to defend Rondo and he’ll adjust to beat you. Pick another and you risk letting Ray Allen get off.  Whatever way the Heat decide to play Boston’s electrifying point guard, he’s likely to cause some serious damage. In four games against the Heat this series, Rondo has averaged 12.0 assists, putting together two games of at least 16 assists. He has always shown the ability to raise his game in the playoffs, and the Heat have no natural answer to stop him. Their best chance is to limit Boston’s transition opportunities and hope Rondo gets bogged down by half-court play.

Maybe Spoelstra doesn’t wake up every night with nightmares of Rondo dancing circles around the Heat, like I envision. But he certainly knows how important defending Rondo will prove in round two.

Though the Celtics still can’t definitively state when Shaq will return, they’re now more confident he will play during the Miami series. (CSNNE)

“I’m more confident now that he will play in the series,” Rivers said. “Maybe (game) one, maybe two but I do think he’ll play. I guess he’s done some stuff with (trainer) Eddie (Lacerte). Eddie’s more confident that he’ll play so that makes me more confident.”

Shaq was scheduled to participate in skeleton drills (5-on-0 offense) yesterday, and could possibly increase his workload today.

“He just did a little bit yesterday,” Rivers said of O’Neal’s involvement in Thursday’s session. “Maybe (he’ll do) some more today, and really, that’s the only update that I have. There’s no decision made or anything.

Just like the rest of us, the Celtics aren’t really sure when Shaq will be ready. But they expect he will be, somewhat soon. (ESPN)

“He needs to show something [Saturday], maybe,” said Rivers. “Then feel better after that. Listen, I wish I could tell. I have no idea. I really don’t. My confidence comes from Eddie. Eddie walked in and said, ‘I feel a lot better about it.’ So, I feel better about it. That’s as much as I can tell you.”

And the saga continues. I can’t wait until Shaq finally returns, mostly so I don’t have to update his health every 24 hours.