Tip-toeing between the present and future

Just a few days ago, Danny Ainge noted, “We’re as good as the teams playing in the Finals right now.” He added that the Celtics have a great chance next season if they keep their roster intact, saying, “Continuity breeds stability and success. We’ll make subtle changes (to the roster).” Rather than react with the obligatory “If continuity breeds success, why did you turn over half the roster at midseason?” argument, I’ll just say the Celtics’ current frame of mind worries me. If Ainge plans to rope one more contending year out of The Big Three, he should spend wisely this summer and balance the desire to win with a worthwhile rebuilding or reloading plan. One mistake this summer could set Boston’s future back for years.
I don’t entirely disagree with the sentiment of reaching for another title. Like Ainge alluded to, the Celtics’ series against Miami was closer than the final tally. Even in losing 4-1, the Celtics could blame at least a half-dozen mitigating factors: Rajon Rondo’s injury, Paul Pierce’s bogus ejection, Glen Davis’s impersonation of a drunken parade float, Jeff Green’s unwillingness to assert himself, Shaq’s Achilles heel and Jermaine O’Neal’s wrist, to name a few. Even with everything conspiring against Boston, every game the Celtics lost against the Heat was a toss-up at some point in the fourth quarter. There wasn’t a moat in between the two teams, just a small stream. And that was with Rondo dragging his lifeless arm by his side. With a little luck (and a little health), the Celtics might have represented the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. However, that thought should not blur Ainge’s vision this summer.
Trying to contend one more time with The Big Three presents two main issues.
1. Money
As presently constructed, the Celtics are perfectly set to rebuild on the fly next summer. After this season, only Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo remain under contract. That leaves Boston with flexibility and cap space galore; Ainge would have the option of rebuilding with young players or recruiting superior free agents in hopes of building the next so-called Super Team.
One or two bad moves could ruin all that flexibility. Let’s say the Celtics re-sign Jeff Green to a long-term contract, then sign Samuel Dalembert (or Halfway-Decent Free Agent Center X) for the mid-level exception. Poof. There goes $14-15 million of that valuable cap space Boston has built, all for two players who may or may not help the Celtics very much. But if they want to contend next season, the Celtics may have to bite the bullet and use some of the cap space they intended to save. Oh, the concept of trading Boston’s future for a few years of Jeff Green and/or Samuel Dalembert does not appeal to you? Take a number and get in line.
There are certain ways to navigate around choosing between the future and the present, though the alternatives would take creativity from Ainge. The most likely option would seem to be a sign-and-trade deal (or multiple sign-and-trade deals, likely including Glen Davis and Jeff Green). Let’s say the Celtics don’t want to spend $6-8 million on Green. They could sign-and-trade him to a team with limited cap space, allowing the team to sign Green in return for one of the team’s assets. In a perfect world, the Celtics would trade Green for a worthwhile veteran with one year remaining on his contract. Then, the Celtics could advance their prospects for next season while also maintaining their cap space and flexibility. Meanwhile, the other team involved in the trade would receive Green, a decent player with a reservoir of untapped potential, someone who can play now and possibly (with a lot of improvement) become a franchise cornerstone in the future. An example of such a trade? Green for O.J. Mayo. Would the Grizzlies pull the trigger? Maybe. Would the Celtics? I would hope so. Let Mayo run a one-year test drive, see how he fits in Boston’s plans, maintain cap space, preserve the present, and prepare for the future, all at once.
The second issue?
2. Feasibility
Any team can crow about wanting to contend for a title instantly. But not every team can actually put a contender onto the court. In all likelihood, the Celtics already missed out on their last chance for a title last season. They will get one year older by next playoffs, while the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will presumably become one year more cohesive, one year more experienced and, yes, one year better.
So much has to go right for Boston to contend next season: The Big Three have to stay healthy. The Celtics need to use zero cap space to sign at least one (and probably two) reliable centers alongside Jermaine O’Neal. Rajon Rondo needs to become more consistent and stay healthy. The bench needs a makeover (again, with zero cap space). If Green and/or Davis return, their play needs to do a 180. Even if all that unfolds in Boston’s favor, the Heat and/or Bulls STILL might put a better team on the floor. And that’s just in the East, before we even talk about Dallas, Los Angeles, Oklahoma City, and whoever else might contend in the West.
Which is why mortgaging the future (even slightly) for one more championship run makes very little sense. Even a perfect storm of health and offseason additions might not be enough for Boston to win another title. It’s probably better to put the foot on the brakes for next year and concentrate more efforts toward the future. Yes, I hate myself for saying that. I know Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett deserve an organization hell-bent on winning a championship in their final years. Sadly, the win-or-bust mentality makes little sense.
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Who are the premier free agents in 2012, I have only heard of 3, Howard, Williams, and Paul? Garnett, Allen and Pierce are only 3 of 15 roster spots. Old,yes, but still very functionable. Why not resign them for much lesser contracts and still pursue a premier free agent. No one seems to talk about that. I am sure Garnett and Allen would sigh for less to continue to battle for championships. Still alot of room for a youth movement with them on board showing the way!
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I think the Cs should definitely play for a title next year and then as Steve says consider signing the big 3 to much smaller contracts and use the balances to get a couple of younger all-star (or all-star quality) FAs. The Cs can immediately improve their bench by having RA be the Sixth man and by starting DW at SG. Then we have instant offense off the bench with the second unit, or as needed. Play Murphy more as a “Rodman” style rebounder, as he has proven he can play that role. He just needs meaningful minutes. Now as to Green and Davis, I think you sign and trade only one of them. I’d give Green a chance on a two-year deal and do a sign and trade of Davis for a back-up center (as Krstic is likely gone). Then I would change my playing and substituting philosophy, which Doc’s sucks, and limited KG/PP/RR minutes and start using players like Bradley to spell Rondo but with, again, meaningful minutes. Bradley can be a lock down defender but needs game time to improve his offense, which will get better but not sitting on the bench. Don’t sign Sasha, maybe consider Arroyo, and play Wafer more. Use the draft picks and find a FA that wants to come help the Cs win another title.
The Celtics have enough talent to win next year, but it needs to be used differently and with an eye on limiting the time the older players play until the playoffs. There’s plenty of ‘team’ experience so none of that needs tweaking too much, only Green getting more aggressive with his play when with the core 4 and 2nd unit. The future can wait and 2012 can be a title year…assuming injuries stay away unlike the last 3 title runs. Go Cs…
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With the Big Four up front, and Baby, Green, West, Wafer coming off the bench, and Rondo as our key guy, we potentially have a strong team next year.
I sure wish you’d stop ripping Baby. Try not to jump on the Scapegoat Baby bandwagon. Baby had the right idea: attack the basket. The very next game, we WON because Doc did exactly what Baby tried to do. If anything, we need to bring someone like Cowens on board who can work with Baby on his postup moves. But no, you’d rather just crack off some stupid line about Baby.
But whatever approach we take to next year, you are absolutely right that it has to be predicated on NOT trying to somehow build on big (delusional) expectations that we can make next year our year. If the stars align, maybe we could win a championship next year. But our expectations should be at a middling level. The door is now closed to the Big Three era.
Resign Baby and Green to minimal contracts. If they balk, then let’s see if we can get somebody for them.
But what really matters is Rondo. This has to be the summer in which Rondo takes his shooting up a notch. We won’t be able to call him The Kid much longer.
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I do not want the Celtics to EVER go into any season, especially with the caliber of talent they currently have, with the thought process of “our expectations should be at a middling level”. This team lost the last 3 title opportunities solely to injuries. I want them to aspire for the title again, as I believe that is their thinking and not dwell on any frustration over the last wasted opportunities that derailed their chances. If anyone thinks KG/PP/RA lace them up to strive for a “middling level” then you do not understand what this group of players is all about. And Davis needs to play like he did last year so any criticism is fine because he earned it with his selfish play this season. All of his stats declined so it wasn’t just about him driving to the hoop. But I would prefer that than the 18 ft jumpers he thought he could drain all the time. Go CS…
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Ainge needs to make a choice: compete for a title next year or blow it all up and start rebuilding. Why keep the Big 3 here if the C’s are just going to get through the year with no hopes of a title. It’s not fair to them or the fans. So either go out and get the right players to help out; and if that’s simply not possible (due to salary cap) then maybe it’s time to trade Garnett and Pierce for some younger talent. Keep Ray because he’s in the best health and can come off the bench. Personally, I”d rather see them go for title with the Big 3 next year. But Green and Davis are not going to help us get there; they lack what it takes. There has to be some talent out there that can contribute. The Mavs found JJ in Puerto Rico of all places. Kurt Rambis came out of D League back in the day. Creative scouting may be the way. We don’t need a bunch of superstars, just solid team role players who bring it every night. Dallas is a model of such success.
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Chris H…the current Cs are the same model and originators of said model, but if Doc doesn’t play Wafer, Murphy, Bradley, Arroyo, and Green meaningful minutes then you get what we got. Again, injuries killed us the last 3 years and there’s nothing that will change that. Team play wins championships and we have a pretty good one still. We just need to avoid the injury bug once and for all. At least that’s how I see things. Go Cs…
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Yes, James, agreed, but the best way to avoid injuries is to sign players that are not already damaged goods or super old or both, i.e. Shaq and J.O. Given their salary cap, who can the C’s realistic get that will help their team contend this year?
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