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A Refresher Course on Jeff Green

I’m not sure if this holds true for most Boston fans, but I frequently forget that the Celtics have Jeff Green. The fact that Green sat out last season continues to throw me when I’m considering potential lineups for the 2012-2013 campaign. But Green will likely be a rather important contributor, so if you are like me and his presence often slips beneath your notice, we could probably use a bit of a refresher course.

One of my good friends is a diehard fan of the Thunder, dating back to their days in Seattle. He is constantly trying to convince me that the Thunder didn’t completely fleece the Celtics in the Kendrick Perkins/Jeff Green deal. I, of course, think he is wrong. I think that the Celtics were heavy title contenders in 2011 until the deal, after which they were barely contenders to make the Eastern Conference Finals. But my friend is insistent. “He was playing out of position. He could have been an All-Star in OKC. You are going to love Jeff Green.”

Let’s safely assume that the claims of Jeff Green the All-Star are hyperbole. But perhaps he is right that Green can be considerably better than we’ve seen, and given the bigger-than-basketball struggles Green has endured, even non-Celtics fans should wish Green the best over the next few years. Boston now has Green locked up for four years, for better or worse, so let’s break him down by the numbers.

One of the most common claims about Jeff Green is that as the Celtics begin a sort of youth movement, he will benefit from the transition opportunities afforded him by a point guard like Rondo. This may well be true. Green is fairly athletic, and far too often during the Big 3 era, Rondo would find himself up ahead of the pack with no teammates around him. But statistically, a team with a higher pace hasn’t really helped Jeff Green much. In 2010, Green’s final season with OKC, the Thunder were 12th in the NBA in pace. During that season, Green’s PER was 13.8, a bit below the league average of 15.0.

In 2011, when Green was traded to Boston, the Celtics were 22nd in the league in pace, and Green’s PER fell to 12.9. This drop could be attributed to Green’s discomfort within Boston’s system and the slower pace at which Boston played. The problem, of course, is that even in a faster system like Oklahoma City’s, Green didn’t have an incredibly high PER. So while Green may well be better utilized in a faster paced system, it doesn’t appear that the change would turn him into an incredibly productive player.

But assuming that Green will be somewhat better in transition with Rondo, the next question is where he should be played. Green is very tall, legitimately 6’9 with long arms, so if he could play the small forward, he would be well built. Unfortunately, Green’s numbers at the 3 don’t really justify a move to that position. For OKC, Green played just 12.1% of his minutes at small forward, and it’s easy to see why: OKC had Kevin Durant, and at small forward, Green’s PER was a paltry 10.5. At the four, where Green spent 61% of his time in ’09-’10, he was considerably better. Indeed, his PER was actually above the league average, at 16.5. In Boston, Green’s PER was low at power forward, but that can be at least partially attributed to the system. So the answer for Green is to play a faster pace and put him at the four, right?

Well…not so fast.

Though Green was fairly productive on offense in OKC’s system at power forward, he also allowed a 20.5 PER to his opponents. Green also gave up 11.7 rebounds per 48 minutes to power forward opponents, while grabbing just 7.8 rebounds per 48 minutes for himself. So while Green at the four may help the Celtics offensively, he may be somewhat of a liability on defense, and he won’t help with Boston’s legendary rebounding woes.

The good news, of course, is that if anyone can build a system that benefits Jeff Green and puts him in a position to suceed, it’s Doc. It should be noted that the 2010 OKC team that Green played for was not an elite defensive team, giving up 98 points per 100 possessions, good for 11th in the league. In Boston, Green’s power forward opponents were just slightly over the average league efficiency, at 15.9 PER, which indicates that Boston’s system will help him quite a bit more than Oklahoma City’s did.

If there is an obvious solution to Green’s defensive liabilities, I’m not sure what it is. Perhaps playing Green at the four and allowing Boston’s excellent defensive systems to make up for his mediocre defense will work, but the Celtics don’t really have another 3-4 tweener who could easily switch with Green on defense. So presumably, if Boston wants to play Green at power forward, they are going to have to build their defensive strategies around his slightly less than average defense.

I should note that by no means am I trashing Jeff Green’s abilities. He could be a very good piece on this team if he used correctly.

But we all need to remember, as we prepare for this season, that Green is a very complicated player with a very complicated skill set. Using him correctly may require some patience and some trial and error before he contributes efficiently.

Follow Tom on Twitter, @Tom_NBA.

Related posts:

  1. Jeff Green: No contract extension discussions yet
  2. Jeff Green misses practice again
  3. Jeff Green falling short of expectations, unless you expected him to remain Jeff Green
  4. Jeff Green announcement tomorrow, likely to miss regular season games
  5. Boston Celtics want Jeff Green back, says Danny Ainge

categories Celtics Columns | Tom Westerholm | July 25, 2012

21 Responses to “A Refresher Course on Jeff Green”

  1. Nate says:
    July 25, 2012 at 5:41 pm

    Nice piece

    But the truth is
    Jeff green is the same ad Donte Greene

    both are tall athletic forwards. both showed signs of greatness and have had great games. both have long stretches of bad games and both underpreform when you evalute them with any anylitic.

    Jeff green got paid 9 million for the next 4 years while Donte Green got cut.

    What was the difference Jeff green had way more talent around him.

    Jeff Gren’s team won in spite of his lack of rebounding and bad three point shooting. unless jeff green does something he has never done in his career play long stretches of great basketball. He will not become an allstar.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    • James says:
      July 25, 2012 at 6:15 pm

      Didn’t know Dg was cut. He has a ton of talent and would thrive on a team like ours. I watched enough Kings games here where I am to know he is inconsistent, but that has more to do with the other talent on the team and more so to their experience and a lack of a true PG. I’d rather have DG than Collins any day. Go Cs…

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      • James says:
        July 25, 2012 at 6:18 pm

        That said, JG needs to come to camp and kick ass, as he has underperformed while being a Celtic. I hope he rises to the opportunity he’s been given…both by God and by the Cs. Go Cs…

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  2. Greg says:
    July 25, 2012 at 5:55 pm

    Well it’s like you said Jay…Jeff Green could be a very good PF. I’m not too worried about his defense because NO ONE will allow him to half-heartedly defend 3′s or 4′s. He’s capable of rebounding better, but again, he was on a team that at the time (and to a certain degree, still is) built around outscoring you and outrunning you. And like I said, Westbrook does not make teammates better the way Rondo can and does. Think about this: Brandon Bass has never warranted a multi-paragraph examination of his talents no? He had the best year of his career and looked like he could be a 15-8 kinda guy. That’s 100% due to Rondo. Bass went from a limited, one dimensional player to vital cog to the C’s. The exact same thing could happen to Jeff Green, if he is incorporated correctly. I think he could take Bass’s PF role and do admirably. And I think the confidence factor is underrated as well.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. Greg says:
    July 25, 2012 at 6:43 pm

    Hey…Robin Lopez is still available. Probably too pricey, we should have signed him instead of Collns.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    • CPUFC says:
      July 25, 2012 at 10:06 pm

      Yeah Robin Lopez, not bad…how about Jamal Magloire? Just throwing the idea out there.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      • Greg says:
        July 25, 2012 at 10:10 pm

        Well Lopez is going somewhere…I read that he’s involved in some trade with a team out west. I forgot. And Magloire is too old. Basically he would be Collins 2.0

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. spiral stairs says:
    July 25, 2012 at 7:17 pm

    Does it bother anyone else that 2.5 of their 5 highest paid players are 4′s, as well as their most promising youngster?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. Greg says:
    July 25, 2012 at 10:40 pm

    Yeah, Jeff Green averages more points per game AND more rebounds than Brandon Bass..he’s a superior defender, and is more athletic and longer. I really think our team would be better if he was our starting PF. I still like him off the bench because that’s another weapon we’d have. Either way, by the time the playoffs come..we could be like 10 deep legit. But is that a successful model to follow? Rotations usually aren’t that deep in the playoffs.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    • James says:
      July 25, 2012 at 10:48 pm

      If JG is our PF does that make Joseph our sub for PP? If so, then I might be able to live with your idea but JG has to show he can handle top PFs and defend them and score on them. I think BB is on his way to a steady 15/8 so JG would need to at least equal that. That said, we’re going to be 12 deep or more come the playoffs. I consider Collins #15, Dooling #14, Fab #13, Xmas #12 (think he’ll make the team and bypass KD in minutes unless injuries happen). I just hope Doc plays all the young guys so they can develop and be ready in the playoffs. Go Cs…

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      • Greg says:
        July 25, 2012 at 10:58 pm

        Hey you stole my projections for BB! Anyways, you’re right. I do think after the “proving phase” is over, we could see JG in the PF role. My main thing is his ability to alter those midrange shots that most 4′s take nowadays. Now obviously Green would struggle against the Al Horfords and Josh Smiths’ of the world (who wouldn’t?) But against guys like Udonis Haslem? David West? Evan Turner? He’d be perfect. And I hope your right re the rotation. Colin Cowherd was explaining a while ago about how benches are overrated when the playoffs come around and when you think about it, it has at least minimal merit. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate the fact that we essentially have 2 teams on one, I just hope that Doc (who will have a lot of pressure this year oddly) continues his usual stellar job of role-dispensing this year. He’s got tons and tons of options.

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

        • James says:
          July 25, 2012 at 11:56 pm

          Colin Cowherd is an idiot if that is what he believes. Ever see Michael Cooper affect games for the Lakers, or Vinnie Johnson for the Pistons in the 80s to dispute that notion. Actually, benches end up winning titles for teams as there is always heros that rises to the occasion to help their teams win. Go Cs…

          Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

          • Greg says:
            July 26, 2012 at 7:28 am

            Except this isnt the 80′s. The lineups get shorter in the playoffs. I expect everyone except the rookies to play in the playoffs though. That’s about 11 or 12 deep. Terry, lee, green, Wilcox and Collins will be HUGE. And MAYBE sully depending on how big the other team is.

            Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  6. paul says:
    July 25, 2012 at 11:06 pm

    I think Green needs to be at small forward. He’s no power forward. Maybe he’s not a small forward either. So far in his career, he’s been a journeyman. I think that being out of position has exacerbated that. Ainge seems to have tremendous faith in him. The Celtics are a team that will help him, unlike OKC when he was there. Westbrook vs. Rondo. I’m not sold on Jeff Green, but Danny has staked his career on the guy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    • Greg says:
      July 25, 2012 at 11:10 pm

      So he’s not a power forward because?

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      • Greg says:
        July 25, 2012 at 11:11 pm

        Apparently you haven’t noticed the small-ball lineups that get you far in the playoffs. Shane Battier was playing PF for the Heat last year.

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

        • James says:
          July 25, 2012 at 11:59 pm

          SB played that position because he got the nod over Haslem who was injured. That and the Heat had to play that way because they had no center and Bosh played out of position. Go Cs…

          Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

          • James says:
            July 26, 2012 at 12:00 am

            Also Bosh got hurt and that hurt their rotations, too. Go Cs…

            Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

          • James says:
            July 26, 2012 at 12:02 am

            Lastly, the Heat played that way because LBJ can play so many positions. Go Cs…DA’s job is not on the line re JG but JG’s time as a Celtic is on the line. he needs to produce big-time. Go Cs…

            Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  7. Frank says:
    July 25, 2012 at 11:28 pm

    Jeff Green will be backing up PP at small forward and will play some 4 when Doc toys around with different line ups but I think the main goal, or hope is that Jeff Green can give Pierce some rest, a ton of rest to keep him fresh for the playoffs

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    • Al Galoppo says:
      July 26, 2012 at 12:38 am

      otherwise we will be 4 deep at the 2 and the 4 and skin deep at the 3. again.
      Pierce can’t play 40 minutes night in, night out anymore. He couldn’t do it last year, either, and he got injured. PER or not PER, JG MUST come off the bench for PP

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