Boston's need for a rim protector is becoming more and more blatantly obvious.

This is the second in a (hopefully) long series of posts detailing Boston’s in-game sets and adjustments during the playoffs, featuring a positive and a negative from each game.

Positive: Hand-off plays sparking penetration

Ok, so by “hand-off plays sparking penetration,” I meant to say it in the singular. As in “one hand-off play sparked penetration.” This one, right here:

Cut me some slack: It’s a little bit difficult to find positives after that abominable second half. But let’s take a closer look at this particular set, since it’s one of the only plays that ended in a shot attempt around the rim and showed the Celtics getting any kind of penetration against New York’s defense. The play began with Avery Bradley bringing the ball up the court on the left side and passing it to Brandon Bass in the middle. Bass then dribbled to the left side, and Jason Terry cut back around him, receiving what amounted to a triple screen from Pierce, Bradley and Bass.

The Knicks were able to easily switch because they were playing their super small-ball lineup, which meant that Iman Shumpert, Raymond Felton and Pablo Prigioni were all, to a certain extent, interchangeable. Prigioni switched off Bradley on the second screen and followed Terry out behind the 3-point line, fighting through Bass’s screen and seemingly knocking the play off-kilter.

But Terry seemed to have been a misdirection, because Bradley immediately turns and cuts back around Bass, receiving the hand-off and driving to the hoop.

Bradley drives against Chandler and puts up a layup that gets swatted away (viewers disagreed as to whether it was goal-tending (it was totally goal-tending)), but it was one of the rare times that the Celtics got into the paint without crashing into someone. The Celtics only used two hand-off plays, according to mySynergySports, and one of those plays was actually a pass to Kevin Garnett for, you guessed it, a mid-range jumper. After Rondo’s injury, the Celtics have used this tactic on occasion to get penetration against tough defenses. It might be time to put a little bit more emphasis on it, especially since Jeff Green struggled to get himself going in Game 2.

Boston has always been a team that lived and died by the jumpshot, but when they exclusively shoot jumpers, there’s going to be a lot more dying and a lot less living.

Negative: Pick-and-roll defense on Raymond Felton

Much has (correctly) been made of Boston’s lack of rim protection, and nobody has taken advantage of this more than Raymond Felton. This is aggravating to say the least but not entirely unexpected. New York has the second best pick-and-roll ball-handler offense in the NBA, at 0.86 points per possession (per Synergy), but last night the Knicks managed 1.18 PPP on 8-14 shooting from the field.

One of the reasons the pick-and-roll works so well for New York is the way the bigs setting the screen dive to the hoop after they set the screen. We saw this early on as Tyson Chandler set a screen for Felton and dragged Paul Pierce to the hoop with him, stranding Chris Wilcox on Felton. Felton gets around Wilcox with relative ease and scores.

The best way to beat this strategy is to go under the screens, since Felton is much less dangerous as a jumpshooter (34% from 3-9 feet, 24% from 10-15 and 37% from 16-23, per HoopData.com) than he is at the rim (57% per HoopData). As you can see from the following videos, even the shots that go in are more difficult because Boston’s defenders saw the pick coming and went under.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is in the second video when even Avery Bradley is ducking under the screen, something he doesn’t tend to do very often. It should be noted that it’s not that Boston doesn’t respect Felton’s jumpshot (although it’s possible they don’t), it’s that they don’t have anyone who can stop a ball-handler at the rim, so they’d rather give up the open jumper. From an efficiency standpoint, this makes some sense. It’s not an ideal strategy by any means, but at this point, so many of the Celtics’ strategies are stitched-together makeshifts that this one fits right in.

In Conclusion

That was an ugly game with a lot of ugly conclusions to be drawn. One would like to hope that aspects will be cleaned up when the series shifts back to Boston, but if the Celtics can’t get to the rim or make adjustments to limit New York’s pick-and-roll game, this series is going to be over fast.

Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

• The Knicks continue to switch on even the most delicate of screens on the perimeter.  The Celtics looked to take advantage of this most often with the Knicks point guard switching onto Paul Pierce.  This is a nice play to start offensive sets with, but also results in isolation plays from the top of the key.  A double-edged sword indeed…
• Doc, as he hinted before the game, expanded his rotation and included Wilcox and Randolph both who got some run in the first half.
• There was much talk about Jason Terry’s oh-fer (0-5) in game one.  I did not know if he still had the star power to give him the ‘he’s too good not to bounce back’ treatment but thankfully, he was able to prove me wrong.  JET came up with a trio of three-pointers in the first half to put some of my worries to rest.
• Brandon Bass was a necessary beast on the boards tonight, collecting eight in the first half.
• Boston shot over 50% in the first half, and held the halftime lead 48-42.

Second Half

• Carmelo Anthony outscored the Celtics 13-11 in the third quarter.  Yikes.  Not a successful recipe for winning basketball.
• The first half run was all for Shavlik Randolph and Chris Wilcox were the only meaningful minutes they got.  I wish Doc was more willing to try different approaches when things are not going well (see: entire second half).
• Courtney Lee gets his first minutes of the night down 16 in the fourth quarter in what was essentially garbage time.  WHAT?! Jordan Crawford and Jason Terry combined for 59 minutes (or 29.5 minutes a piece).  Why is Lee so far down in the depth charts?! AHHH!
• The Celtics cut it to single digits with a little Jordan Crawford mix-up-magic (which is what I will be calling the out of control beauty that is JC27 from here on out) and a Pierce three-pointer.  Then New York realized that Carmelo Anthony was still on the Knicks and he was more than capable of making shots, and the lead was inflated as quickly as Boston’s chances of winning were deflated.
• Kevin Garnett continues to struggle in this series and has yet to come back to full form since returning from injury.  Just speculating now– KG is just not healthy.  The Big Ticket finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds, but was not reliable enough to depend on when the C’s tried to string together consecutive buckets.
• The final tally was 23 points in the second half scored by the Celtics.  I present this without comment.

This Celtics team is easy to give up on after a second half performance like the one presented tonight.  I cannot think that high character high pride players like Pierce and Garnett will go out with a whisper.  Both teams will be headed back to Boston for their game Friday and expect heavy hearts and determined play from the Celtic green because tonight, frankly, they got embarrassed.

Follow Jesse on Twitter: J_duderanch

Paul Pierce drew a lot of double-teams, which worked in Boston's favor.

This is the first in a (hopefully) long series of posts detailing Boston’s in-game sets and adjustments during the playoffs, featuring a positive and a negative from each game.

Positive: Successful isolation plays

There’s a reason players who excel in “hero ball” sets are usually considered successful in the playoffs, especially in bloody Eastern Conference battles in which defense is the main focus and offense comes at a premium. To wit: Late in the fourth quarter, trailing by just three points, it felt like the Celtics were on the verge of being blown out, and when Carmelo Anthony scored a transition layup to push the lead to five, we pretty much agreed that the game was over. And we were correct.

It’s worth noting, however, that Boston was very successful in isolation sets (1.29 points per possession, per mySynergySports), mainly thanks to Paul Pierce. Pierce had a fairly inefficient shooting night (21 points on 6-15 shooting), but he got to the line eight times and converted all of his attempts. The reason he was able to get to the line so much was because he consistently beat his defender in isolation, forcing New York defenders to swing and hack at the ball as he went by. Whether or not all of these calls were justifiably fouls is irrelevant: If your man beats you and you swing at the ball, you are likely to be called for a foul. Pierce took full advantage of that on Sunday.

As you can see, Pierce worked in isolation to get a couple of his first half baskets (his iso fouls actually came in transition when his defender didn’t pick him up in time). In the first play, Pierce works his way to the elbow and just shoots and scores over J.R. Smith. In the second, he and Terry run a pick and pop that forces a switch (so that Shumpert, easily a superior defender, is defending Terry instead), avoids a reach by Smith and blows past him for the lay-in plus one.

Pierce establishing this effectiveness with his back to the basket led to several other nice first half plays by the Celtics, including a couple of cutting plays for Avery Bradley. Of all the players affected by Rajon Rondo’s injury, Bradley is perhaps the biggest victim. In Rondo’s absence, he has been forced to play point guard (a position that is clearly uncomfortable and difficult for him), and he has been largely taken out of his best offensive ability: reading defenses and making the appropriate cut off the ball for an easy layup. Without Boston’s best passer to see these cuts developing, Bradley has been handcuffed to a certain extent.

But when defenses ignore Bradley and double up on Pierce and Garnett playing with their backs to the basket, Bradley is presented with a fresh opportunity to dive to the hoop with two smart players ready to dish to him. Watch these two cuts, both resulting in an easy basket.

In both situations, New York’s reluctance to leave Pierce in a one-on-one situation in isolation results in an open lane for Bradley. In the first play, the assist goes to Kevin Garnett, but Bradley’s lane to the hoop is actually a result of Smith’s desire to help on Pierce’s one-on-one matchup against Jason Kidd, as you can see from this still-shot.

Once Pierce gets the ball, Bradley moves toward the top of the key, and Smith hovers in between the two. When Pierce ball-fakes toward Bradley, Smith is forced to take a step away, which clears enough room for the entry pass to Garnett. Garnett receives the pass and finds Bradley for the easy layup.

In the second play, New York’s defense is very confused from the beginning. Smith is again somewhat at fault, as he fades to the corner to guard Lee as soon as Bradley throws the entry pass to Pierce. But when Chandler comes over to double, obviously as afraid of the Pierce/Kidd matchup as Smith was in the first example, he leaves Bradley a completely uncontested lane down the middle of the floor. Pierce drops the ball off to Bradley who gets perhaps the easiest basket he’ll have in the entire series.

The problem with these isolation plays is that they start with one of Boston’s aging stars getting the ball with his back to the basket. This is a problem because getting Pierce and Garnett the ball proved to be an unreasonably difficult challenge for Boston’s ball-handlers.

Negative: Entry passes

Were you cursing and screaming at your TV in the second half? Did the preponderance of turnovers eventually turn you into one of the zombies from “28 Days Later,” yelling and screaming and spitting at strangers? Congratulations, you’re just like me.

Chances are the plays that drove you over the edge were the awful, awful entry passes Boston tried to throw throughout the game. The worst offender was Bradley, whose cuts to the basket and bad entry passes made him the worst kind of Jekyll and Hyde: too valuable to sit and too damaging to leave on the floor. Here are two of his four, both in the first half.

You are doing basketball completely wrong may have a problem when Ruben Studdard Raymond Felton is reading your passes so easily he can leap up and intercept them before they reach their intended targets. Again, it’s hard to truly blame Bradley; he’s playing completely out of position and clearly doing the absolute best he can. But Pierce and Garnett are going to need to score quite a bit if Boston is going to win this series, and if they need the ball with their backs to the basket to create those baskets, the entry passes are going to have to be a heck of a lot crisper.

Not only will the passes have to be crisp, they will have to put Pierce and Garnett in situations that will allow for success. This one came in the fourth quarter, and although the game was basically over (you’ll notice that this was the final score), it was still an aggravating turnover.

The Celtics ran a beautiful set on this possession, one that I suspect we will see again before the series is over. Garnett first sets a back pick on Jeff Green, which forces Garnett’s man (Kenyon Martin) to follow Green off the pick into the left corner. Then Garnett, now covered by Carmelo Anthony, runs into the right corner and sets a screen for Pierce, forcing Pierce’s defender (Jason Kidd) to switch onto Garnett and Melo to switch onto Pierce. This meant that two players had really excellent mismatches: Garnett/Kidd and Green/Martin.

Here’s where that leaves us:

Bradley’s initial mistake is passing the ball to KG too early and too high, allowing Anthony to sneak in and bother the pass before Garnett can even come down and establish himself. This could have been remedied one of two ways.

1. Pierce could have backed off to the 3-point line above the break, making Melo choose whether to help Kidd or stay at home on a good 3-point shooter.
2. Bradley could have passed to Pierce and allowed Pierce to throw the entry pass, forcing Melo to respect Pierce’s 3-point shot.

On the one hand, you want to laud Bradley’s awareness in throwing Garnett the ball against an utterly inferior defender in Jason Kidd, as well as his awareness that throwing the ball high would keep it well out of Kidd’s reach. On the other hand, you’d like to see him recognize the right time and spacing in which to throw that particular pass. If a player can potentially be triple-teamed in the post, the play probably isn’t going to end well.

In conclusion

We can probably expect to see quite a bit of isolation on Tuesday, but keep in mind that isos aren’t necessarily a bad thing, as Boston proved today. If you can score efficiently out of isolation plays, lots of other interesting possibilities open up.

You know, as long as you can complete a damn entry pass.

Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

Avery Bradley played well off the ball but turned it over too much in the halfcourt.

Over the next couple days, you will probably hear plenty of people quoting the “80% of the time, the team that wins the first game of the series wins the series” statistic that always gets trotted out in the playoffs.

While this statistic may technically be correct, it’s also very misleading. For example: If Milwaukee somehow stole their first game against Miami tomorrow, would you say there’s an 80% chance they will win the series? No, of course not. This statistic means nothing to the individual series.

Nothing, that is, except a 1-0 deficit. Which, when you consider that Boston really seemed like they had a chance throughout most of Saturday afternoon’s matchup against the Knicks, feels pretty significant. After shutting down Carmelo Anthony for much for the first half (including most of the second quarter), a lack of production from the bench and a ton of turnovers doomed the Celtics to an early one-game hole against the favored Knicks.

Let’s get to the bullet points.

• Those who thought the Celtics are better with without Rondo may have been right…for two weeks during the regular season. In the playoffs when defenses are tighter, and emotions and nerves are running high, teams desperately need a ball-handler, especially one who can create shots for teammates and MAKE A DAMN ENTRY PASS INTO THE POST /ahem sorry for yelling. The Celtics turned the ball over 20 times, and many of them came in the fourth quarter when the Knicks were making their final run. Avery Bradley is an admirable player in many ways, but he is not and he has never been a good option at point guard for this team. The same goes for Lee, Crawford and (especially) Jason Terry.
• My evaluation of Jason Terry’s performance today is a series of four letter words that would probably get me fired here at Celtics Town, so I’ll hold my tongue.
• A potentially good option for Boston at point guard: Terrence Williams, who received a DNP-CD for the evening.
• One encouraging sign for the series going forward: Jeff Green and Brandon Bass can both defend Carmelo Anthony (and really, the rest of the Knicks team) very well. Anthony scored 36 points, but he needed 29 shots to do it, and Bass in particular frustrated the Knicks star. Melo thrives when he is able to put his shoulder down, drive and pull up for a jumper, but Bass has surprisingly quick feet and a very strong, both of which proved frustrating for Anthony. Unfortunately, Anthony hit a couple of dagger jumpers that put Boston away.
• “You tryna get the pipe?” jokes were funny for about a week. It has been a lot more than a week since J.R. Smith’s infamous Twitter DM exchange, and for my money, it should be banned from Twitter retroactively.
• Speaking of which, Smith’s shooting wasn’t really an issue for Boston (7-19 from the field), but his energy and athleticism both helped New York, especially in the fourth when Boston’s starters were running out of gas. He also had a first-quarter dunk that brought the crowd to their feet. In my opinion, Green has had a LOT better.
• It’s worth noting that Boston’s bench went without a field goal for the entire game, but it’s also worth noting that Doc’s playoff rotation was incredibly short, so only three non-starters got a chance to even attempt field goals. Crawford, Lee and Terry were the only players to receive minutes. Both Williams and Shavlik Randolph should and probably will get some playing time in Game 2.
• For much of the game, the Celtics held their own on the defensive glass, which shows up in the final tally, 40-40. But the Knicks got a LOT of big rebounds down the stretch, which prevented Boston from shrinking the lead after great defensive possessions.
• Boston scored 25 points in the second half, and eight in the fourth quarter. Those numbers are just not going to get it done.
• If you are wondering why Jeff Green faded a bit after the first half, there are two main reasons. The first: Since Boston wasn’t scoring at ALL apart from him (and some nice cuts to the basket by Avery Bradley), New York’s defense was able to adjust and cut off the straight line-drives to the hoop that open up space for Green. Second: Green played 46 minutes, which would wear down just about anyone. One would hope the Celtics won’t be leaning on him quite as hard in the coming games, especially if Pierce and Garnett can get themselves going in Game 2.

Much more on this game in the next couple days. Game 2 is on Tuesday. It’s going to be a long series.

Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

Amar'e Stoudemire is pretty sure the Knicks are going to win this one.

Amar’e Stoudemire had a bold statement to make about the upcoming series between the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks. Via ESPN New York:

“We’re going to win that first round for sure,” [Stoudemire] said on Thursday night in New York City during a screening of his upcoming EPIX documentary, “Amar’e Stoudemire: In The Moment,” which premieres on April 19. “Obviously, as we all know, with the Celtics, you can never underestimate those guys. We’ve got to definitely come to play every game, and bring that focus and determination every single night. I have high confidence in what we can do.”

Just to be clear: Stoudemire says the Knicks are going to win the first round for sure…and you can’t underestimate the Celtics. You know, like guaranteeing a win against a team that dismissed the Knicks in four games during the weakest of Boston’s KG-era playoff runs.

Certainly, it’s not 2011. But you can bet this, along with a very long list of other offenses on both ends, is currently hanging on Boston’s bulletin board.

An hour and a half until game time, y’all.

Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

It wouldn't be Celtics/Knicks if Pierce didn't get a chance to gloat in MSG. Right?

We’ve reached the end of the regular season, so the writers of Celtics Town would like to take a minute to discuss the impending postseason in roundtable format with a few pertinent questions.

Click on the names to follow the writers on Twitter (and follow our fearless leader Jay @CelticsTown as well), and feel free to leave your answers to these questions in the comments below!

1. What do you find most encouraging entering the postseason?

Jordan: Jeff Green has grown exponentially over the course of the season. Green has gone from being an untradable player with an abysmal contract to one of the more reliable Celtics. Green hasn’t lived up to his contract just yet (which should only be a matter of time if he keeps trending in the right direction), but he’s come a long way since his early struggles. Also Bass seems to finally put it together in the last month or so, though we’ll see if he’s up to the challenge of guarding Carmelo.

Jesse: Their relative depth and different possible scoring options all have me in a controlled optimistic mind state heading into Saturday’s game.  The Celtics have the typical options in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to work their offense through, but Jeff Green can also create offense, along with the less reliable Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford.  The point being—Boston’s offense often times lacks a serious spark and can tend to over-pass and be flat out ugly to watch, now we can at least watch Crawford huck up some floaters in the lane and if we are lucky they might be semi-open looks.

Tom: Watching Paul Pierce and Jeff Green learn to work together has been my favorite part of this season. Their development has been good and bad: Good because it’s great to see two talented players learn how to work in tandem and bad because, due to injuries, they are quite possibly the only players who actually developed any kind of real chemistry on the court throughout the season. Still, this is the positive section, and the fact that Boston’s two best wings have learned how to work together is undeniably a good thing.

2. What do you find most discouraging entering the postseason?

Jordan: That this team went from having a punchers chance at a title in the preseason to trying to play spoiler in the first round. The Celtics are banged up (including the mystery of KG’s health) and trending in the wrong direction. And once again it’s possible that Garnett and Pierce might retire (or go elsewhere in the case of Pierce) following the derailment of the Celtics efforts to reload with the Rondo injury. This feels more like a lost season than a repeat of 2010 and that’s a bummer for a team with such high aspirations entering the season.

Jesse: This is entirely idealistic, but I really wish the Celtics could enter into battle with their best team healthy and on the floor.  Injuries are understandably part of the game, but for basketball’s sake I wish Kobe Bryant was healthy, I wish Rondo and Sullinger (and shoot, I’ll throw in Barbosa too) were around to face the Knicks.  Every NBA fan wants to see each team at their best come playoff time, it tears my heart out knowing Rondo and Sully will be watching these games in their finest suits from the sidelines.  Again, I know I am living in fantasy land, but hey that is the nature of end-of-season roundtables.

Tom: Before this season, I REALLY believed Boston was, on paper, a darkhorse contender for the title. Sure, the Lakers had a super-lineup and the Thunder and Heat were still both things, but Boston had all the pieces and a deep, deep bench. Why couldn’t they make a run for the title?

Well, rebounding for starters. Injuries for seconds. Bad luck for thirds. Now here we are.

3. How far will the Celtics go?

Jordan: I think the Celtics lose in the first round. No matter how ho-hum his regular season performance may be at times, Rondo is too dynamic a postseason player to be easily replaced. Garnetts defense is the key to any chance the Celtics have of making a run, and even if he actually is healthy I’m not sure if it’ll be sustainable. This team is the 7th seed for a reason and it is not 2010. I hope the Celtics prove me wrong, and if they do I think their ceiling is an ECF rematch with the Miami Heat, but I don’t see it.

Jesse: The Celtics lose in the first round.  There I said it.  Yes—this is my typical move of managing expectations by setting the bar low, and allowing myself to be pleasantly surprised.  The C’s show some fight, lose two games in blowouts, win two games in blowouts, and lose two close ones due to Melo and J.R. going off in the fourth quarter, with some timely Kidd three-pointers.  It is what is anticipated so why not manage my post season hangover with reasonable expectations heading into the second season.

Tom: NSFW for language, but here’s my take on this season and the playoffs in general.

THE ABOVE BEING SAID, I’m going to be optimistic and say the Celtics make it to the Eastern Conference Finals where, once again, they are turned back by the Heat in seven. I do not have a good reason for making this prediction.

You know, other than the fact that I’m stupid.

4. Who will win the Boston/New York series and in how many games?

Jordan: I have the Knicks winning in seven. When I glanced over the stats it actually felt like Knicks in six, but I spotted the Celtics an extra game because of their veteran grit and Pierce’s affinity for Madison Square Garden. The Celtics have been a terrible road team this year and thats weighed heavily into my series prediction, especially since I think NYK can win in Boston. I don’t see the Celtics being able to steal enough games in NYK to pull this out, but anything between Knicks in five and Celtics in seven wouldn’t surprise me.

Jesse: 4-2 Celtics lose in six games.

Tom: I’ll take the Celtics in seven, with Game 7 being an instant classic battle between Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony.

5. How many flagrant fouls/technicals do you anticipate?

Jordan: I’m going to go with four techs and no flagrants. Some bark but no bite.

Jesse: I will go with a safe two flagrant fouls for the series—one from Tyson Chandler and the other from Courtney Lee, admittedly going for the long shot with Lee.  Technical fouls will be a little more interesting, is Rasheed Wallace allowed to be on the bench during this series?  If yes—five techs, if no—two techs.

Tom: I’m going all out: four flagrant fouls (it has to be an even number because each team will need revenge) and 10 technicals because the officials will be trying to prevent any more flagrant fouls.