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Category: Celtics Columns

A Refresher Course on Jeff Green

I’m not sure if this holds true for most Boston fans, but I frequently forget that the Celtics have Jeff Green. The fact that Green sat out last season continues to throw me when I’m considering potential lineups for the 2012-2013 campaign. But Green will likely be a rather important contributor, so if you are like me and his presence often slips beneath your notice, we could probably use a bit of a refresher course.

One of my good friends is a diehard fan of the Thunder, dating back to their days in Seattle. He is constantly trying to convince me that the Thunder didn’t completely fleece the Celtics in the Kendrick Perkins/Jeff Green deal. I, of course, think he is wrong. I think that the Celtics were heavy title contenders in 2011 until the deal, after which they were barely contenders to make the Eastern Conference Finals. But my friend is insistent. “He was playing out of position. He could have been an All-Star in OKC. You are going to love Jeff Green.”

Let’s safely assume that the claims of Jeff Green the All-Star are hyperbole. But perhaps he is right that Green can be considerably better than we’ve seen, and given the bigger-than-basketball struggles Green has endured, even non-Celtics fans should wish Green the best over the next few years. Boston now has Green locked up for four years, for better or worse, so let’s break him down by the numbers.

One of the most common claims about Jeff Green is that as the Celtics begin a sort of youth movement, he will benefit from the transition opportunities afforded him by a point guard like Rondo. This may well be true. Green is fairly athletic, and far too often during the Big 3 era, Rondo would find himself up ahead of the pack with no teammates around him. But statistically, a team with a higher pace hasn’t really helped Jeff Green much. In 2010, Green’s final season with OKC, the Thunder were 12th in the NBA in pace. During that season, Green’s PER was 13.8, a bit below the league average of 15.0.

In 2011, when Green was traded to Boston, the Celtics were 22nd in the league in pace, and Green’s PER fell to 12.9. This drop could be attributed to Green’s discomfort within Boston’s system and the slower pace at which Boston played. The problem, of course, is that even in a faster system like Oklahoma City’s, Green didn’t have an incredibly high PER. So while Green may well be better utilized in a faster paced system, it doesn’t appear that the change would turn him into an incredibly productive player.

But assuming that Green will be somewhat better in transition with Rondo, the next question is where he should be played. Green is very tall, legitimately 6’9 with long arms, so if he could play the small forward, he would be well built. Unfortunately, Green’s numbers at the 3 don’t really justify a move to that position. For OKC, Green played just 12.1% of his minutes at small forward, and it’s easy to see why: OKC had Kevin Durant, and at small forward, Green’s PER was a paltry 10.5. At the four, where Green spent 61% of his time in ’09-’10, he was considerably better. Indeed, his PER was actually above the league average, at 16.5. In Boston, Green’s PER was low at power forward, but that can be at least partially attributed to the system. So the answer for Green is to play a faster pace and put him at the four, right?

Well…not so fast.

Though Green was fairly productive on offense in OKC’s system at power forward, he also allowed a 20.5 PER to his opponents. Green also gave up 11.7 rebounds per 48 minutes to power forward opponents, while grabbing just 7.8 rebounds per 48 minutes for himself. So while Green at the four may help the Celtics offensively, he may be somewhat of a liability on defense, and he won’t help with Boston’s legendary rebounding woes.

The good news, of course, is that if anyone can build a system that benefits Jeff Green and puts him in a position to suceed, it’s Doc. It should be noted that the 2010 OKC team that Green played for was not an elite defensive team, giving up 98 points per 100 possessions, good for 11th in the league. In Boston, Green’s power forward opponents were just slightly over the average league efficiency, at 15.9 PER, which indicates that Boston’s system will help him quite a bit more than Oklahoma City’s did.

If there is an obvious solution to Green’s defensive liabilities, I’m not sure what it is. Perhaps playing Green at the four and allowing Boston’s excellent defensive systems to make up for his mediocre defense will work, but the Celtics don’t really have another 3-4 tweener who could easily switch with Green on defense. So presumably, if Boston wants to play Green at power forward, they are going to have to build their defensive strategies around his slightly less than average defense.

I should note that by no means am I trashing Jeff Green’s abilities. He could be a very good piece on this team if he used correctly.

But we all need to remember, as we prepare for this season, that Green is a very complicated player with a very complicated skill set. Using him correctly may require some patience and some trial and error before he contributes efficiently.

Follow Tom on Twitter, @Tom_NBA.

categories Celtics Columns | Tom Westerholm | July 25, 2012 | comments Comments (21)

Answering questions about the Chris Paul trade rumors and Rajon Rondo’s involvement

Danny Ainge is actively trying to trade Rajon Rondo. No matter what Ainge said during his joint press conference with Doc Rivers, no matter how many times he carefully tried to avoid saying he was openly shopping Rondo, no matter what a Hornets source told Gary Washburn about Ainge not shopping Rondo, it’s becoming evident that the truth is otherwise.

Ainge is not actively trying to trade Rondo for just anyone. He is trying only to trade Rondo for Chris Paul, widely believed to be the NBA’s best point guard, or for Stephen Curry, who would then be swapped for Paul. The proposed end result of Ainge’s madness always ends with Paul in green and white, teaming with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen for at least one season of what-if, then re-signing (or not re-signing) with the Celtics when his free agency arrives at year’s end.

Ainge is willing to acquire Paul without any promise the All-Star will remain in Boston beyond 2011-12. Whether Ainge believes that strongly in his own persuasive powers — that he will be able to convince Paul (and maybe someone else, possibly named Dwight Howard) to become Boston’s future — or he simply believes Paul is the key to maximizing the Big Three’s NBA title chances in the coming season, Ainge would reportedly roll the dice without any assurances. Ainge is willing to trade Rondo, whose ridiculously-below-market-level contract expires after the 2013-14 season, for one season of Paul, one season to try to convince Paul to make Boston his permanent home. In other words, Ainge is willing to trade Boston’s lone building block for the future in exchange for what might amount to a one-year rental, but has the (however slight or strong) possibility to leave Boston with the world’s best point guard for the foreseeable future.

What we know for sure, or what we believe we know for sure based on what the world’s top NBA reporters can agree on, is surrounded by a layer of questions, all equally as perplexing as the next. Allow me to take a stab at answering some of them.

Why is Ainge pursuing Paul so aggressively?

I’ve thought about this question a lot and narrowed it down to two primary reasons: 1) Paul’s a better player, and 2) Ainge would make out with his mother if he felt it would improve the Boston Celtics. Ainge has come to the conclusion, right or wrong, that Paul’s talents outweigh Rondo’s and are worth risking the possibility of entering the 2012-13 season with only Paul Pierce and Avery Bradley under contract.

Would trading for Paul, then losing him to free agency, kill Boston’s immediate future?

Yes or no. But probably yes. If the Celtics enter the summer of 2012 with just Paul Pierce and Avery Bradley under contract, there’s no attraction for Dwight Howard. Nor would there be one for Deron Williams (unless the pair miraculously decided to join Boston together, despite the fact that no superstar free agent has ever signed in Boston). The second-tier unrestricted free agents in 2012 are Andrew Bynum (whose knees are made of Jermaine O’Neal), Tim Duncan (who will be approximately 84 years old), Steve Nash (who will be even older), Jason Kidd (who could be Duncan’s grandfather), Gerald Wallace and Jason Terry. All are decent players. None would make the Celtics’ future seem much less bleak.

Assuming that neither Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen retire after this season, the two would be free agents who the Celtics could presumably sign and give the Big Three yet another chance. But if you think the Big Three could contend as a nucleus in 2012-13, without Rajon Rondo, you probably need to wash the rust that’s accumulating on your brain. Basically, if the Celtics trade for Paul, it’s re-sign or bust.

Why is Boston’s offer for Paul considered second-rate?

I still don’t understand this. The Hornets reportedly value Stephen Curry more than Rondo. A package of Curry, Klay Thompson and Ekpe Udoh reportedly holds more value than a package of Rondo, Jeff Green and two first-round picks. Huh?

Rondo’s resume: two All-Star appearances, two-time All-Defensive First Team selection, one championship, the best playoff performer (by far) for a team that went to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Boston’s best playoff performer for the past three seasons (marred only by his elbow injury this season), second in the NBA in assists last season (just 0.2 behind Nash), occasionally inconsistent production, tough hombre who normally rises to the occasion of big games

Curry’s resume: zero All-Star appearances, zero playoff appearances, a terrific shooter, average playmaker, candidate for Tim Kawakami’s annual All-NBA No-Defense Team (Kawakami, a Warriors beat reporter, should know as well as anyone) and someone whose presence actually made the miserable Golden State Warriors defense worse, albeit very slightly

Keep in mind, Rondo’s just two years older than Curry and already has NBA Finals experience. I realize Curry’s a better shooter and scorer. Far better, even. But considering how much more Rondo has accomplished in his career, understanding Rondo improves by miles every season and realizing that the Celtics’ reported deal is even sweetened by multiple draft picks, how is Golden St.’s package better than Boston’s? I’m confused. It just doesn’t make sense. Of course, for all I know, the rumors might have been leaked by a New Orleans front office executive looking to extract more talent from Danny Ainge’s pocket. Who knows?

I could do the same comparison using the Hornets’ reported infatuation with Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan. Am I crazy, or is Boston’s reported offer simply better than either of those teams’?

Why might any potential Chris Paul trade be controversial?

The NBA currently owns the Hornets. If Paul ends up in Boston or any other big market, conspiracy theorists will soon be shouting through megaphones, picketing with signs and throwing bricks through windows.

How will Rondo react to all the rumors?

Let’s pretend the Celtics don’t trade Rondo. At this point, it seems like the likely outcome. Ainge will try to explain the rumors by telling Rondo something to the effect of, “But at least we tried trading you for Chris Paul and only Chris Paul, not anyone lesser.”

But here’s the thing: Rondo considers himself the league’s best point guard and has for years. Trying to trade him for a player Ainge considers better isn’t just likely to hurt Rondo’s feelings. It also attacks Rondo’s supreme self-confidence, one of the pillars on which Rondo has built his career. That confidence won’t go away anytime soon. But his trust and appreciation for Ainge (and perhaps Doc Rivers) sure might. Rondo can be an emotionally fickle guy. These rumors, even if that’s all they amount to, won’t help.

The difference between the current Rondo trade rumors and the 2009 Rondo trade rumors is this: Then, the Celtics were shopping Rondo because he misbehaved too often. Now, they’re shopping him because they think they can acquire a better player. Should Paul be traded elsewhere, the effect of these trade rumors on Rondo might be far greater (and worse) than they were two years ago.

categories Celtics Blog, Celtics Columns | Jay King | December 7, 2011 | comments Comments (6)

categories Boston Celtics, Boston Celtics rumors 2011, Chris Paul, Danny Ainge, Rajon Rondo

Kevin Garnett will be paid for years after retirement, according to report

Kevin Garnett’s first huge contract helped cause the 1998 NBA lockout. His second huge contract brought his career earnings to more than $270 million. He could lose as much as Antoine Walker did, twice, and still be a millionaire fifty times over.

But he’s also wise with his money. According to a report from NBA.com, Garnett deferred portions of his contract so he will earn $5 million per year for seven years even after his current contract ends.

In fact, Garnett’s self-funded pension (apart from his NBPA one) will be pretty plush. Two sources told NBA.com that the Celtics forward will still have $35 million coming after he retires. He’ll be due $5 million annually for seven years, the result of deferred salary Garnett and agent Andy Miller got in each of his last two contract extensions. Whatever portion is due from this season might be affected by games lost to the lockout, but it’s not as if Garnett’s financial spigot gets turned off next spring.

Garnett has made more than $15 million in each of the last twelve seasons. And that’s just from basketball. Add his endorsement deals, like Gatorade, Adidas and now Anta shoes, and Garnett is the Michael Phelps of money — just swimming in cash.

Money-wise, he can obviously afford to sit out this year in exchange for a fair Collective Bargaining Agreement. Money-wise, he can afford just about anything. But from a competitive standpoint, Garnett doesn’t have a lot left. If the NBA cancels this season — and I hate to think like this — Game 5 against the Heat might have been Garnett’s last game. After a full year off, at age 36 by then, would Garnett even attempt a comeback?

That’s why this NBA lockout sucks. We’re not just losing basketball games. We’re losing the end of Kevin Garnett’s career. We’re losing some of Kobe Bryant’s finals days as a dominating force. We’re losing Tim Duncan’s twilight, Lebron James’s revenge, Dirk Nowitzki’s title defense, Blake Griffin’s ascension to greatness and Dwight Howard’s prime. We’re missing John Wall growing up, Ricky Rubio’s debut, Kevin Love gobbling rebounds, Kevin Durant’s run at the throne, and Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony trying to co-exist. We’re missing portions of arguably the best era in NBA history, a three-tiered layer of stars, one attempting to defy age, another attempting to come of age, and another entering its absolute prime.

The amount Garnett is deferring for retirement represents 35% of the yearly difference between the players association and the owners. At least this lockout isn’t absurdly foolish or anything like that. Then this would really be a brutal time for an NBA fan.

categories Celtics Blog, Celtics Columns, Featured, News & Notes | Jay King | October 25, 2011 | comments Comments (1)

categories Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett

NBA lockout hits major setback

The NBA lockout hit a major setback today. After breaking off negotiations today, the two sides have not scheduled any more meetings.

http://twitter.com/#!/WojYahooNBA/status/127162609739902976

The only good news is that nobody can blame this on Kevin Garnett. The bad news is, well, everything else. Get used to the short three-point arc and the longer shot clock, because it seems as the only hoops played for the foreseeable future will be college basketball.

I would rant about the greedy owners who aren’t satisfied with being mere billionaires, or the greedy players who are the highest-paid professional athletes in any sport. But it seems I’ll have plenty of time to formulate that post. The mourning period has begun, hope has been sucked out of the NBA as if by a vacuum, and I have no freaking idea when my favorite sport will return. Maybe January, maybe February, maybe 2012-13.

If you’re drinking tonight, make it a double. And then pour one out for the NBA season, which is looking more and more like a mirage.

categories Around the NBA, Celtics Blog, Celtics Columns, Featured, News & Notes | Jay King | October 20, 2011 | comments Comments Off

categories NBA lockout

NBA inches closer to 50-50 revenue split, according to report

Today’s NBA labor discussions weren’t completely without progress, as the two sides inched closer to a 50-50 revenue split, “give or take a point with ranges based on revenue performance,” according to a source cited in a Yahoo! Sports report.

As long expected, the two sides have moved closer to a “50-50 split, give or take a point with ranges based on revenue performance,” one source said.

While the league’s owners and players made progress in Wednesday’s 8½-hour mediation session, one source involved in the talks was hesitant to characterize it as a “breakthrough” moment, saying system issues could again derail talks. The two sides will resume mediation at 2 p.m. ET Thursday following the conclusion of the owners’ board of governors meetings. The owners are meeting to discuss a new revenue-sharing plan, and what type of proposal they present to the players on Thursday will determine whether the labor talks continue to gather momentum. …

Yet, it was always believed the two sides would eventually have to meet in the middle, and sources said there was momentum on Wednesday to get there.

“I think everyone is expecting miracles. It is still going to take some time even with a mediator,” one league executive said. “I don’t think Cohen has solved disputes in two days.”

Is 50-50 a fair deal? That’s for the two sides to decide. But it’s a revenue deal the sides are reportedly approaching, and if they want to agree, you certainly won’t find me standing in the way picketing.

Yet former Celtic Leon Powe made a lot of sense Wednesday night on his Twitter page, even if he did so without using proper grammar. If the players concede to a 50-50 split, that is more or less taking the entire brunt of the league’s losses and pinning it on the players. The league reported a loss of $300 million last season. A drop from 57% of BRI to 50% of BRI equates to the players shouldering $268.8 million of the owner’s losses, or 80.6% of the league’s losses, by my calculation. And that’s assuming the league actually lost as much as it said it did, despite reports of secondary ownership benefits like Cavs owner Dan Gilbert turning his Cavs ownership into two brand new casinos, which cast a shadow of doubt over the NBA’s balance sheets.

“We need a fair deal, we the players got to make up for everything, all of the lost. Which is not fair, if we got to miss the season, then ok,” Powe tweeted.

As usual, there are other blood issues. Adrian Wojnarowski said the biggest hurdle might be luxury tax proposals which the NBA wants to use to further discourage teams from overspending. The owners also want to limit Larry Bird rights and restrict teams over the cap from using the mid-level or bi-annual exceptions. And, they would like to take each player’s first-born child.

categories Around the NBA, Celtics Blog, Celtics Columns, Featured, News & Notes | Jay King | October 19, 2011 | comments Comments Off

categories Billy Hunter, David Stern, Leon Powe, NBA lockout

Biggest NBA lockout exhibition tour ever in the works? Pierce, Rondo expected to participate, according to report

Oh, yay. Another new basketball tour in some place I’ve never been, highlighted by stars who should be playing in the NBA rather than messing around in exhibitions, which I can’t even watch on TV.

I’m sick of the NBA lockout, and I’m sick of exhibition games popping up left and right. But Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo are reportedly among more than a dozen stars expected to participate in the biggest NBA lockout exhibition tour ever, and they’ll reportedly get paid between six figures and $1 million for their efforts.

Kevin Garnett is also considering whether to join the tour. Insert your “he’ll just [expletive] the tour up” joke here _____. (ESPN)

In a trip that could resemble Team USA’s takeover of the world stage at the 2008 Beijing Games, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Rajon Rondo, Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook, Carlos Boozer, Paul Pierce and Kevin Love are among the players expected to participate. Kevin Durant and Kevin Garnett, among a few others, are also contemplating joining the tour.

Atlanta business mogul Calvin Darden has been putting the tour together with the players’ agents for nearly three months. He has already obtained signed contracts from Bryant, Wade, Bosh, Griffin, Rondo and Pierce. Sources say he’s hoping to complete the rest of the agreements, along with insurance requirements, over the next few days.

Even so, sources warned that the tour has not yet been finalized and there’s still a chance it could unravel.

The tour, scheduled to begin Oct. 30 and end Nov. 9, will make stops in Puerto Rico, London, Macau, and Australia. Each game will be staged in an arena that holds at least 15,000 fans. Two games each will be played at sites in London and Australia. …

While Darden’s business record is impressive, his family has endured controversy. His son, Cal Darden Jr., recently spent nearly four years in prison after pleading guilty to five counts of grand larceny and scheme to defraud.

The 36-year-old Darden Jr., once a high-rolling stockbroker on Wall Street, was convicted of defrauding 11 victims of roughly $7 million. In addition to stealing money from securities firms, he was convicted of bilking $300,000 from former NBA star Latrell Sprewell and $950,000 from rap star Nelly.

Though Darden Jr. will have no more than a minor role in the tour, several sources said Darden Sr. has been very open with the involved parties about his son’s legal issues and that they do not foresee them causing a problem. Darden Jr.’s main role has been putting together the charitable component of the tour.

This is exactly what I want Rondo and Pierce doing. Risking their bodies to play six games in faraway countries, games organized by a media mogul whose son, also playing a role in the tour, is a convicted felon known for defrauding 11 victims of roughly $7 million. To be fair, even if he bilks $300,000 from any of the barnstorming stars, Calvin Darden, Jr. is probably not any worse to work for than Donald Sterling.  Plus, who doesn’t want a convicted felon handling the charitable component of the biggest tour in NBA lockout history?

Seriously, this isn’t how this year is supposed to go. I’m supposed to be rooting for the Celtics to somehow beat the Heat, not praying for Rondo and Pierce to stay healthy while playing in Macau. For the love of Bill Sharman, NBA owners and players association, please come to an agreement.

categories Around the NBA, Celtics Blog, Celtics Columns, Featured, News & Notes | Jay King | | comments Comments (2)

categories Kevin Garnett, NBA lockout, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo

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