The season is approaching (but not quickly enough), so that means it’s NBA preview time. Starting with the league’s worst team and working our way to the top, we’ll preview one team per day.

Love must hate being stuck in Minnesota. Cold weather and bad basketball. Is there anything worse?

Minnesota Timberwolves

Last year’s record: 15-67
Head Coach: Kurt Rambis
Projected Starters: Jonny Flynn, Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love

Outlook:

Quite simply, not good. When the league’s second-worst team unloads its best player for a couple draft picks and a sack of potatoes (aka Kosta Koufos); re-signs the decade’s biggest bust for $20 million; holds its future in the hands of a pothead and a 19-year old Spaniard who may or may not play in the United States anytime soon; then takes out a full-page ad in a local newspaper to apologize; well, that team has been Kahn’d. And, for the foreseeable future at least, it has little hope.

X-Factor:

Michael Beasley. You know how he underacheived in Miami. He went to drug rehab, never found his niche, didn’t adjust well to the NBA game, couldn’t defend a soul — the list of Beasley’s shortcomings the past couple years is longer than Shawn Bradley’s arms. But underneath all the billows of marijuana smoke, there’s potential. We saw it at Kansas St., and we saw glimpses of it in Miami. If Beasley can get his life and game together, he could be a 25 and 10 type; he’s THAT talented. If not? He’ll be the second-biggest draft bust on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Biggest Question Mark:

Will Ricky Rubio ever play a game in a Minnesota Timberwolves jersey? I know that question doesn’t have anything to do with next year’s team. Then again, it’s tough to find a question about next year’s Timberwolves team worth answering. They’re going to be bad, and probably 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets bad. Rubio is a rare Spaniard of hope for a franchise in dire straits.

Most important newcomer:

Beasley, simply because he has — by far — the highest upside. But don’t sleep on Wesley Johnson. The Wolves could regret choosing Johnson ahead of DeMarcus Cousins, but the 6’7″ jumping jack might make an immediate impact on both ends of the court. Emphasis on might.

Biggest loss:

Al Jefferson. What? Did you think I was going to say Nathan Jawai?

Most compelling storyline:

Can it be anything but David Kahn? Kahn spent the summer doing his best Isiah Thomas impersonation, then called Darko Milicic a “manna from heaven.” It’s just a shame manna’s suck at basketball. Anyway, Kahn’s ineptitude is the only reason anyone’s discussed the Timberwolves this summer. Not only is he the most compelling storyline, but he’s pretty damn close to being the only storyline.

Player to watch:

Kevin Love. Mostly by default, but also because Love’s damn good. His averages last season? 14 points and 11 rebounds, in only 28.6 minutes. Can somebody please let Kurt Rambis in on a secret the rest of the NBA world seems to know? Love deserves more playing time.

Descriptive movie quote:

“Look – you’re my best friend, so don’t take this the wrong way. In twenty years, if you’re still livin’ here, comin’ over to my house to watch the Patriots games, still workin’ construction, I’ll fuckin’ kill you. That’s not a threat; now, that’s a fact. I’ll fuckin’ kill you.” – Good Will Hunting

To Love, the only Timberwolf worth writing about. In twenty years, if Love’s still playing in Minnesota, wasting his unique talents on shitty teams surrounded by shitty players, I’ll fucking kill him. That’s not a threat; now, that’s a fact. I’ll fucking kill him. You know what the best part of my day is? It’s for about ten seconds from when I put on the TV to when I switch the channel to the Timberwolves game. Because I think maybe I’ll flip the station and Love won’t be there. No goodbye, no see you later, no nothin’. Just left. I don’t know much, but I know that.

Projected Record: 17-65. Mediocrity would be a drastic improvement for the Wolves. But mediocrity ain’t happening any time soon.

(The top five draft picks of all time: Darko, Darko, Darko, Darko and Darko.)

Oh man. I knew the Shaq signing was going to get some bad reviews. After all, there are some stats out there that say he was pretty much devastation to the Cavs. But this? Darko? DARKO? DAAARRRKKKOOOO???? Child please.

I react like this because Henry Abbott made a bet saying Darko will out-produce Shaq next season. (TrueHoop)

So, here’s the deal: I’m not saying Milicic will score more, play better D, have a better PER or anything else. I’m saying that over the course of this season, smart analysis will show he’ll produce more at both ends of the floor, in total. In other words, heck yes we’ll factor in defense, and heck yes, I’ll take the advantage I’ll get from the reality that he’s likely to play more minutes.

And that may not be fair in judging the better player, but it’s fair when we’re talking about the value of signing this or that player — players who can get on the floor are more valuable than players who can’t.

Okay, so granted, Abbott’s kind of cheating a little. He’s talking about pure production, which apparently factors in the amount of minutes played. Shaq clearly won’t get many minutes. Darko, even if he doesn’t deserve any, probably will.

But I’ve got to tell you, when a respected individual writes that the newest member of your team will be outplayed by Darko Milicic, it’s never a good sign. Even if Darko IS a manna from heaven.

P.S. – Everyone says Darko is a good defender because they know he can’t do anything else, but he actually sucks.

I guess it pays to be rich.

I was reading NBA Fanhouse this morning and came across an interesting piece by Tom Ziller. The jist of the story? NBA owners were forced to shell out all the big bucks they spent this offseason. They HAD to remain competitive in order to make money, so they HAD to overpay for a decent team that will win a few games.

According to Ziller, the huge money owners are spending isn’t ammunition for the players in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Rather, it’s an indictment of the times, a sign that penny-strapped owners are trying to win and earn money at any costs. These outrageous signings aren’t sure-fire ways to lose lots of money, they are desperate attempts to maintain a fanbase and earn a buck or two in the process. But there are problems with Ziller’s thinking.

On the surface, his contention seems like a possibility. Losers don’t make money. People aren’t going to buy tickets to see last year’s Nets, and they aren’t going to buy jerseys of the worst players in the league, so owners need to put a winner on the floor. Even if it means overpaying for mediocrity, mediocrity beats the basement any day of the week. Most markets can fill up a stadium with a playoff team, even if that team will undeniably get trounced in the first round. But what doesn’t fill a stadium is a loser. So it makes sense, kind of, for a team to overpay for mediocre players that will help the team win yet still keep the team short of contending for a title. After all, an owner’s got to put butts in the seats. Even if it means mortgaging the future for a few playoff appearances in the short run.

But what Ziller kindly fails to mention is that a lot of the players being signed this offseason to monster contracts don’t take their teams to the next level. In fact, one of Ziller’s main arguments is that teams like the Bucks HAVE to sign players like Drew Gooden and John Salmons to big contracts – that signings like those are the only way to make them contenders. But are Gooden and Salmons really making any team contenders? Please. Are they really even the pieces to take Milwaukee out of the first round? Probably not. Is Darko Milicic really going to help the Timberwolves get into the playoffs and put some rumps in the stands? Umm, well, they were 2-22 after they acquired him last season, so I’d say no. Is Travis Outlaw going to help the Nets become better than they were last season? Maybe a tiny bit, but will his addition alone make them a playoff team? No way. Is Wesley Matthews the player to bring the Portland Trail Blazers to the next level? I highly doubt it. Is Brendan Haywood going to win the Mavericks a championship ? Not a chance.

Do you see where I’m going with this? It’s one thing if the owners had been overspending for players that will really help their teams win or at least become formidable. That’s why the Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay deals are at least defensible. Without those two players, the Hawks and Grizzlies would have taken a big step backward. But these other deals? All this other money owners are spending out of their supposedly broke asses? They aren’t moves that help teams get much better, or even at all better. Substitute a veteran’s minimum guy for Darko and the Wolves would be just as good. Probably a bit improved, in fact. The same goes for all those other guys I mentioned. Can’t teams find cheaper replacements that would provide almost the same production?

Ziller makes the argument that small-market teams can’t attract the better free agents, so they have to offer mediocre players contracts they can’t turn down in order to field a competitive team. And maybe Ziller’s right. Maybe that’s why all this free agent nonsense is going on. But you know what? Rebuild in the lottery, develop your players, make smart signings and smarter trades. Even small-market teams can succeed that way. Just ask Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

So Ziller can keep talking about how the owners are forced into this, that they have no choice but to overpay scrubs in order to stay competitive and make money. But that isn’t the proven way to win. It isn’t the proven way to make money. Nobody’s buying tickets just to see Drew Gooden and John Salmons play basketball, folks. I promise.